Telecommunications market in Poland 2008

The report UPDATE: April 2009

Telecommunications market in Poland 2008 analyses the current situation and discusses the trends and development directions on the Polish telecommunications market in the years ahead. Each chapter contains the most up-to-date information on individual segments of the market and presents profiles of the largest players in the industry. The report forecasts the development of the key market indicators and looks at the growth opportunities at each segment in the years to come.


Sources of data presented in the report

The report is based on analysis of data from the following sources:
- PMR own data, analyses and forecasts
- sources in the public domain: professional press and specialist internet services, general press, reports on the telecoms markets in Poland and Europe,
- financial reports of operators, documents published by brokerage houses, investment funds and public institutions, as well as available on the internet
- interviews with experts on the telecommunications market
- survey conducted among telecommunications companies specially for the purposes of the report.


Strengths of the report:

- detailed analysis of the fixed-line and mobile telephony markets
- description of the current situation on the ISP market in Poland
- accurate and reliable forecasts and growth prospects for 2008-2012
- findings of the survey conducted among the largest telecommunications companies in Poland.


Current trends

The analysis of the telecommunications market, contained in the report, describes:
- the overall market situation and possible effects of emergence of new mobile operators
- the consequences of implementation of the Telecommunications Law
- broadband internet access (including access based on DSL, CaTV and other technologies)
- 3G telephony.


Reliable forecasts

Most of the forecasts concerning the value of the telecommunications market in Poland or its individual segments were prepared using a model based on historical information, macroeconomic data (both historic and forecast) and information on trends that emerge in the telecommunications sector and its individual segments.

The report presents forecasts for 2008-2012. They concern:
- size of the market as a whole
- size of individual segments (fixed-line telephony, mobile telephony, internet access, data transmission)
- penetration rates of fixed-line and mobile telephony
- penetration rate of internet access and number of broadband users (by type of access).

Findings of the survey conducted among the largest telecommunications firms in Poland

The survey was carried out by PMR Research, the research division of PMR, amongst the management staff of the largest telecommunications companies operating in Poland.
The findings of the survey present:
- current situation on the market, including the barriers and development opportunities
- assessment of steps taken by the Office of Electronic Communications
- telecommunication technologies and services that are most likely to succeed on the Polish market
- 3G telephony market
- long-term forecast for penetration rates of the mobile telephony market (3G included) and fixed-line telephony market

With the responses given, we were able to better understand the current situation on the telecommunications market. They proved very helpful sources of information on the industry.


The report target audience:

- management staff and marketing departments of companies either already active or considering launching of operations on the telecommunications market in Poland
- consulting, research and analytical firms
- government institutions, embassies and sector organisations
- financial institutions, including banks, brokerage houses and investment funds.

Latest version of this report is available here: Polish telecoms market 2009

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1. Methodology of the report

2. Executive summary

3. An overview of the telecommunications market in Poland

• Value and growth rate of the telecommunications market in Poland
• Current situation, events and trends on the market
• Current situation
• Key events on the market
• Key trends in the market
• Polish telecommunications market in comparison with other European markets
• Forecasts for the telecommunications market in Poland
• Market development forecasts 2008-2012
• Key trends on the Polish market in the coming years
• Legislation and the institutional environment of the telecommunications market
• The Telecommunications Law
• Regulatory authorities and sector institutions
• Important legal changes to be introduced shortly
• Extra: Main capital groups on the Polish telecommunications market

4. Results of the survey of the 100 largest telecommunications companies in Poland

• Calculation of the PMR Telecommunications Climate Indicator
• Assessment of the situation in the Polish telecommunications market and forecasts for the nearest future
• Barriers to and stimuli for the growth of the Polish telecommunications market
• Growth prospects for the Polish telecommunications market

5. Mobile telephony market

• Value and the growth rate of the market
• Number of users and mobile penetration
• Mobile market structure
• Market trends and developments
• Players on the mobile market
• PTK Centertel
• Polkomtel
• PTC
• P4
• Forecasts for the mobile market in Poland
• Extra: MVNO market in Poland
• Extra: Mobile handset market in Poland
• Extra: 3G in Poland

6. Fixed-line telephony market

• Value and the growth rate of the market
• Number of fixed-line subscribers and penetration rate
• Business market
• Market trends and developments
• Structure of the fixed-line market
• Local connections market
• Domestic long distance connections market
• International connections market
• Fixed-to-mobile connections market
• Key players on the fixed-line market
• Telekomunikacja Polska (TP SA)
• Netia
• Telefonia Dialog
• Multimedia Polska
• Other operators
• Forecasts for the fixed-line market in Poland

7. The data transmission, line rental and ISP market

• Value and the growth rate of the market
• Structure of the DLISP market
• Data transmission market
• Line rental market
• Internet access market
• Key players on the DLISP market
• TP SA
• Netia
• Exatel
• GTS Energis
• Telekomunikacja Kolejowa
• Telefonia Dialog
• Crowley Data Poland
• NASK
• Cable television operators
• Forecasts for the DLISP market in Poland

8. List of graphs

9. List of tables

10. About PMR

11. Contact PMR

List of graphs

1. Value (PLN bn) and growth rate (%) of the telecommunications market in Poland, 1998-2007
2. WIG20 and WIG-Telekom index values, 31 Aug 2007-01 Sep 2008
3. Value (PLN bn) and growth rate (%) of the telecommunications services market in Poland, 1998-2007
4. Telecommunications market in Poland – shares (%) of individual segments in the total market value (PLN bn), 2007
5. Monthly cost of using a fixed-line telephone (€) for individual users in Poland, selected European countries and the European Union, 2000-2007
6. Monthly cost of using a fixed-line telephone (€) for corporate users in Poland, selected European countries and the European Union, 2000-2007
7. Aggregate monthly revenue (PLN) per fixed-line, mobile and broadband internet access user in Poland, 2001-2008
8. Number (m) of permanent internet connections and broadband internet connections in Poland, 2004-H1 2008
9. Percentage of households using more than one telecommunications service (%) from a single provider in Poland, selected European countries and the European Union, 2006-2007
10. Household penetration rates for PCs, laptops and internet access in Poland, 1998-2008
11. Mobile penetration (%) in selected European countries and the EU-15 average, 1994-2007
12. Percentage of households (%) using mobile services (pre-paid and post-paid) in selected European countries and the European Union, 2007
13. Value (PLN bn) and growth rate (%) of the telecommunications market in Poland, 2007-2012
14. Value (PLN bn) and growth rate (%) of the telecommunications services market in Poland , 2007-2012
15. Value of individual segments of the telecommunications market in Poland (PLN bn), 1998-2012
16. Telecommunications market in Poland – shares of selected segments (%) in market value, 1998-2012
17. Telecommunications market in Poland - growth rate of the value of individual segments (%), 1999-2012
18. TP SA Group
19. Polkomtel/Exatel Group
20. Polska Telefonia Cyfrowa Group
21. Netia Group
22. How was 2007 for your company?
23. How will 2008 turn out for your company in comparison with 2007?
24. PMR telecommunications climate indicator, 2002-2008
25. Did the value of the Polish telecommunications market decrease or increase in 2007 relative to 2006?
26. Will the value of the Polish telecommunications market increase or decrease in 2008?
27. Will the value of the Polish telecommunications market increase or decrease in 2009 in comparison with 2008?
28. Over the next two years, the value of the fixed-line market in Poland will...
29. Over the next two years, the value of the mobile market in Poland will...
30. Over the next two years, the value of the Polish ISP market will...
31. The greatest barriers to the development of the Polish telecommunications market
32. Largest barriers to the development of the Polish telecommunications market; opinions of respondents in 2002-2008
33. Factors which can positively affect the development of the Polish telecommunications market over the next two years
34. Key factors with the most positive impact on the development of the Polish telecommunications market; opinions of respondents in 2002-2008
35. How do you assess UKE’s activity?
36. Which UKE’s actions are currently most desirable?
37. Growth prospects for selected segments of the Polish telecommunications market in the next two years, % of respondents
38. How will individual segments develop in relation to the entire telecommunications market over the next two years?
39. Which internet access technology, 3G or WiMAX, will come to dominate the market over the next three years?
40. Can we expect significant capital expenditure on the development of the WiMAX technology in Poland?
41. When will it happen?
42. Which mobile value-added services will develop the fastest over the next two years?
43. Will there be any new MVNOs on the mobile market in the years to come?
44. How many MVNOs will be operating on the Polish market in 2008-2010?
45. MVNOs will succeed in the short run (1-2 years)
46. MVNOs will be successful in the long run (3-4 years)
47. Over the next two-three years, MVNOs will be acquired by the incumbent operators owning an infrastructure
48. MVNOs’ offering will be supplemental to their core business
49. Factors enabling MVNOs to succeed on the market
50. Reasons for a relatively big number of MVNOs in Poland compared to other countries in Central and Eastern Europe
51. What mobile TV content has the greatest chance of becoming popular in Poland?
52. Development of 3G mobile telephony will prompt a fall in mobile prices
53. Internet access services will develop thanks to 3G technology
54. 3G mobile telephony will be used by companies rather than individuals
55. 3G mobile telephony will rather be a niche product
56. Will there be any mergers or acquisitions on the Polish telecommunications market in the coming year?
57. Value (PLN bn) and growth rate (%) of the mobile market in Poland, 2002-2007
58. Mobile market in Poland – operators’ shares (%) by volume of their revenue (PLN bn), 2007
59. Mobile market in Poland – operators’ shares (%) by volume of their revenue (PLN bn), H1 2008
60. Quarterly values of the mobile market in Poland (PLN bn), Q1 2002-Q4 2008
61. Mobile penetration (%) in Poland, 1996-H1 2008
62. Number (m) and growth rate (%) of mobile users in Poland, 1998-H1 2008
63. Mobile market in Poland – shares of networks (%) by number of SIM cards (m), H1 2008
64. Number of net additions on the mobile telephony market in Poland (‘000), 1997-2007
65. Mobile market in Poland – shares of networks (%) by net additions (‘000), H1 2008
66. Total connection time in mobile telephony in Poland (m minutes), 2005-2007
67. Total of text messages sent in Poland (m), 2005-2007
68. Total of multimedia messages sent in Poland (m), 2005-2007
69. Mobile operators’ revenue in Poland, by particular categories (PLN bn), 2005-2007
70. Shares of pre- and post-paid customers (%) in the Polish mobile market, 2002-H1 2008
71. Post-paid mobile market in Poland – operators’ shares by number of subscribers (m), H1 2008
72. Pre-paid mobile market in Poland – networks’ shares by number of SIM cards (m), H1 2008
73. Average blended ARPU of Polish mobile operators (PLN), 2001-H1 2008
74. Average revenue per minute of connection in mobile networks in Poland (PLN), 2001-H1 2008
75. Share of non-voice revenues in total revenues of mobile operators in Poland (%), 2001-H1 2008
76. Number (m) and growth rate (%) of mobile users in Poland, 2007-2012
77. Mobile users in Poland – shares of pre- and post-paid segments (%), 2007-2012
78. Mobile penetration (%) in Poland, 2007-2012
79. Value (PLN bn) and growth rate (%) of the mobile market in Poland, 2007-2012
80. Reduction of MTRs in mobile networks in Poland (PLN), 2006-2010
81. Revenue of mobile operators in Poland from MTRs (PLN bn), 2006-2010
82. MVNO market in Poland by number of SIM cards (‘000) distributed by particular MVNOs, H1 2008
83. Volume of sales of new mobile handsets in Poland (m) and growth rate (%), 2003-2008
84. Mobile handset market in Poland – shares of the largest manufacturers (%) by sales volume (m), 2007
85. Largest dealers on the mobile market in Poland by number of outlets, July 2008
86. Number of mobile internet users in Poland (‘000), H1 2007-2008
87. Value (PLN bn) and growth rate (%) of fixed-line telephony market in Poland, 2001-2007
88. Fixed-line market in Poland – shares of the biggest players (%) by volume of revenues (PLN m), 2007
89. Number of fixed-line subscribers (m) and penetration rate (%) in Poland, 1996-H1 2008
90. Fixed-line market in Poland – shares of biggest players (%) by number of lines, H1 2008
91. Number of business lines in Poland (m) and share in total number of fixed lines (%), 2003-H1 2008
92. Business fixed-line market in Poland – shares of the biggest players (%) by number of lines (m), H1 2008
93. Share of VoIP connections in total voice connection time in fixed networks in Poland (%), 2001-2007
94. Percentage of internet users in Poland who have particular messengers installed on their computers, June 2008
95. VoIP fixed telephone services subscribers in biggest CaTV operators in Poland, H1 2008
96. Structure of the Polish fixed-line market by source of revenue, 2004-2007
97. Value (PLN bn) and growth rate of the fixed-line voice connection market in Poland, 2001-2007
98. Value (PLN bn) of the fixed-line voice connection market in Poland by market segments, 2001-2007
99. Value (PLN bn) and growth rate (%) of the local connections market in Poland, 2001-2007
100. Value (PLN bn) of the local connections market in Poland with a breakdown into traditional and VoIP markets, 2001-2007
101. Volume (bn minutes) and growth rate (%) of the LC market in Poland by traffic volume, 2001-2007
102. Volume (bn minutes) of the LC market with a breakdown into traditional and VoIP markets, 2001-2007
103. LC market in Poland – shares (%) of the biggest players by traffic volume (m minutes), 2007
104. TP SA’s share (%) in the LC market within operator’s own network by traffic volume, Q1 2004-Q2 2008
105. Value (PLN bn) and growth rate (%) of the domestic long distance connections market in Poland, 2001-2007
106. Value (PLN bn) of the DLD connections market in Poland with a breakdown into traditional and VoIP markets, 2001-2007
107. Volume (bn minutes) and growth rate (%) of the DLD connections market in Poland by traffic volume, 2001-2007
108. Volume (bn minutes) of the DLD connections market in Poland with a breakdown into the traditional and VoIP markets, 2001-2007
109. DLD connections market in Poland – shares (%) of the biggest players by traffic volume (m minutes), 2007
110. TP SA’s share (%) in the DLD connections market within operator’s own network by traffic volume, Q1 2004-Q2 2008
111. Value (PLN bn) and growth rate (%) of the international long distance connections market in Poland, 2001-2007
112. Value (PLN bn) of the ILD connections market in Poland with a breakdown into traditional and VoIP markets, 2001-2007
113. Volume (m minutes) and growth rate (%) of the ILD connections market in Poland by traffic volume, 2001-2007
114. Volume (m minutes) of the ILD connections market in Poland with a breakdown into the traditional and VoIP markets, 2001-2007
115. ILD connections market in Poland – shares (%) of the biggest players by traffic volume (m minutes), 2007
116. TP SA’s share (%) in the ILD connections market within operator’s own network by traffic volume, Q1 2004-Q2 2008
117. Value (PLN bn) and growth rate (%) of the fixed-to-mobile connections market in Poland, 2001-2007
118. Value (PLN bn) of the F2M connections market in Poland with a breakdown into traditional and VoIP markets, 2001-2007
119. Volume (bn minutes) and growth rate (%) of the F2M connections market in Poland by traffic volume, 2001-2007
120. Volume (bn minutes) of the F2M connections market in Poland with a breakdown into the traditional and VoIP markets, 2001-2007
121. F2M connections market in Poland – shares (%) of the biggest players by traffic volume (m minutes), 2007
122. TP SA’s share (%) in the F2M connections market within operator’s own network by traffic volume, Q1 2004-Q2 2008
123. Shares (%) of individual segments as a percentage of TP SA’s consolidated revenue, H1 2005-H1 2008
124. Shares (%) of TP SA’s subscription fee revenue in operator’s total revenue, 2001-2007
125. Number of fixed-line subscribers (m) and penetration rate (%) in Poland, 2007-2012
126. Number of fixed-line subscribers in Poland (m) with a breakdown into consumer and business lines, 2007-2012
127. Value (PLN bn) and growth rate (%) of the fixe-line telephony market in Poland, 2007-2012
128. Value (PLN bn) and growth rate (%) of the DLISP market in Poland, 2001-2007
129. The DLISP market in Poland – shares (PLN m) of component segments in the market value, 2007
130. Value (PLN m) and growth rate (%) of the data transmission market in Poland, 2001-2007
131. Data transmission market in Poland – shares (%) of key players by revenue volume (PLN m), 2007
132. Value (PLN m) and growth rate (%) of the line rental market in Poland, 2001-2007
133. Line rental market in Poland – shares of the biggest players (%) by revenue volume (wholesale and retail markets), 2007
134. Value (PLN m) and growth rate (%) of the internet access market in Poland, 2001-2007
135. Number of internet users (m) and penetration (%) in Poland, 1997-H1 2008
136. Percentage of internet users in Poland using the internet on an everyday or nearly everyday basis, Q2 2003-Q2 2008
137. Percentage of internet users in Poland using the internet at home, Q2 2003-Q2 2008
138. Percentage (%) of internet users in Poland declaring having internet access at home, with a breakdown into broadband and dial-up access, H1 2005-H1 2008
139. Types of internet connections used in households in Poland (% of households), H1 2006-H1 2008
140. Internet penetration in companies in selected countries of the Central and Eastern European region, 2003-2007
141. Value (PLN m) and growth rate (%) of the dial-up market in Poland, 2001-2007
142. Dial-up market in Poland – shares (%) of key operators by revenue volume (PLN m), 2007
143. Dial-up traffic in Poland (bn minutes), 2001-2008
144. Value (PLN m) and growth rate (%) of the broadband internet access in Poland, 2001-2007
145. Percentage of broadband connetions in Poland by transfer capacity to end-user, H1 2008
146. Broadband internet subscribers (‘000) – TP SA and CaTV operators in Poland, 2001-H1 2008
147. BSA-based services subscribers in Poland (‘000) – shares of key players, H1 2008
148. Broadband internet access subscribers (‘000) in Poland – shares (%) of key players/access types, H1 2008
149. Broadband internet penetration (%) in Poland, 2002-H1 2008
150. TP SA’s revenue on DLISP market (PLN m) with a breakdown on particular segments, 2002-2007
151. Internet access subscribers (’000) of TP SA, by access technology, Q1 2007-Q2 2008
152. Number of broadband internet access subscribers in Netia, Q1 2007-Q2 2008
153. Number of broadband access internet subscribers in Telefonia Dialog and growth rate (%), 2004-H1 2008
154. Key CaTV operators in Poland by revenue (PLN m) generated from internet access services, 2007
155. Key CaTV operators in Poland by number/percentage of internet access subscribers (’000), H1 2008
156. Number of internet users (m) and penetration rate (%) in Poland, 2007-2012
157. Number of broadband internet subscribers (‘000) in Poland, with a breakdown into the business and household segments, 2007-2012
158. Number of subscribers (m) in Poland by broadband access technologies, 2007-2012
159. Braodband connections in Poland by share (%) of particular technologies, 2007-2012
160. Value (PLN m) of the DLISP market in Poland by segments, 2001-2012
161. Broadband connections (‘000) in TP SA with a breakdown into the TP SA retail lines and BSA/LLU, 2007-2012
162. Value (PLN bn) and growth rate (%) of the DLISP market in Poland, 2007-2

List of tables

1. Telecommunications market in Poland – key data and forecasts, 2007-2012
2. Key developments on the market to September 2008 21-
3. Polish telecommunications market in comparison with other selected markets in Central and Eastern Europe and the EU-15, 2007
4. Percentage of households with access to telephony services (fixed-line and mobile) in selected European countries and in the European Union, 2007
5. Key data on the mobile telephony market in Poland
6. Blended ARPU (PLN) of mobile operators in Poland and growth rate of this indicator (%), 2005-H1 2008
7. PTK Centertel: key data, 2001-H1 2008
8. Polkomtel: key data, 2001–H1 2008
9. PTC: key data, 2001–H1 2008
10. P4: key data , 2007–H1 2008
11. Mobile virtual operators present on the mobile market in Poland or planning to enter it, H1 2008
12. Intended and estimated number of users of selected MVNOs in Poland, H1 2008
13. 3G coverage in Poland, by population coverage (%) in case of particular operators’ networks, 2008
14. Number of radio permits for UMTS stations for particular mobile operators in Poland, 2008
15. Key data on fixed-line market in Poland
16. Number of new VoIP services users attracted by selected providers in Poland in 2007 and their targets for 2008
17. TP SA: key data, 2000-H1 2008
18. Netia: key data, 2000-H1 2008
19. Telefonia Dialog: key data, 2000-H1 2008
20. Multimedia Polska: key data, 2002-H1 2008
21. Sferia: key data, 2005-H1 2008
22. Key data on the data transmission, line rental and ISP market (DLISP) in Poland
23. Local ISPs acquired by Netia, 2006-2008
24. Key acquisitions on the CaTV operators’ market in Poland, 2007
25. Growth rate for particular DLISP market segments (%), 2007-2012
26. Standard broadband internet access offered to Polish individual subscribers by price (PLN) and connection speed, 2007-2012