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Telecommunications market in Poland 2011Development forecasts for 2011-2015 |
Apart form the three chapters, focusing on the condition and current trends of the main telecom segments, the report also includes the findings of PMR’s own survey of top 100 telecom companies in Poland. The forecasts refer to the period between 2011-2015.
Key issues
- Current situation and main trends on the Polish telecom market.
- Value and change of the fixed telephony market. Number of users, penetration of the market and market structure, broken down into the segment of local calls, international calls and F2M.
- Value and change of the mobile telephony market. Number of users, penetration of the market and market structure, by number of call minutes and sent text and multimedia messages. An appendix presents the Polish MVNO market, the mobile phone distribution and market (including data on the smartphone market) and mobile internet access.
- Results of the survey of top telecom companies in Poland.
- Changes in the law – bills and amendments.
- Size of investment on the telecommunications market in Poland.
- Key players on the telecommunications market in Poland (profiles).
Strengths of the report:
- presents the condition of the individual market segments and niche markets
- uses reliable and verified data from many sources
- analyses key telecom firms on the market.
The report allows to compare and assess the entire market, including the role of its individual branches and is enhanced with the findings of our own survey conducted among the largest telecom companies. The analysis includes growth forecasts and indicators for the Polish telecom market in 2011-2015, as well as value forecasts for the individual segments of the market and key operational data (number of subscribers, number of SIM cards etc.)
The report is a useful source of market information in business situations such as:
- starting activity on the Polish telecom market
- entering the market of fixed telephony/ mobile telephony/ DLISP
- expanding range of activity
- analysing competition on the Polish telecom market
- analysing trends on the market
- analysing current changes in the telecom law
- estimating development opportunities
- developing business strategies for the telecom market.
What questions does the report answer?
- What is the value and dynamic of the market?
- What are the development forecasts for the market until 2015?
- What are the key trends influencing the market?
- What is the size of investment for the individual operators in the recent years, and what is their main focus?
- What are the market shares of the players?
- Which segments of the telecom market are the most promising from the point of view of telecom and network hardware providers?
The report is addressed to:
- managing staff and marketing departments of companies operating on, or planning to enter, the telecom market
- providers of telecom and network hardware
- distributors of ICT services and products
- consulting, research and analysis agencies
- chambers of commerce, industry organisations
- universities, research institutes
- financial institutions (banks, brokerage houses, investment funds).
Companies mentioned in the report:
Telekomunikacja Polska, Polkomtel (Plus network), PTK Centertel (Orange network), PTC (T-Mobile network), P4 (Play network), Netia, Telefonia Dialog, Multimedia Polska, GTS Poland, MNI Telecom, TK Telekom, UPC, Vectra, Aster
The Polish telecom market - do you know...
An analysis of the telecommunications market in Poland points to its growing potential and increasing development opportunities. The Polish telecom market is still underinvested. More investment needs to be located in non-urbanised areas. Both new investments and new regulations of UKE (the Office of Electronic Communications in Poland) have had a positive impact on the level of competition on the Polish telecom market.Current events on the telecom market in Poland show the growing interest it is enjoying. In last year alone, Polkmtel has been purchased by Zygmunt Solorz-Zak, Era network has been rebranded to T-Mobile, and we have been observing a tendency to sign network sharing agreements among the top network operators.
Market commentary by expert
The telecom market in Poland has all the characteristics of a mature market. The saturation with basic services is at the level where year-on-year growth can at best reach one-digit figures. However, the share of revenues from data transmission, line rental and internet access in the market of telecom services keeps expanding. Last year, the segment reached the value of approx. PLN 6bn, which accounted for 16% of the entire telecom service market. The DLISP market is increasingly influenced by the competition from mobile access services. The mobile internet market has recently become the centre of the industry’s attention, and the main field of competition for new users among operators. In this context, it is worth noting the commercial start of LTE-based mobile internet services on the retail market.PaweÅ‚ Olszynka, IT&Telecom Head Analyst
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Methodology p. 11
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Executive summary 15
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Overview of the telecommunications market in Poland p. 23
- Value and growth rate of the telecommunications market in Poland p. 30
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Current situation, events and trends on the market p. 34
- Current situation p. 34
- Key events on the market p. 37
- Key trends on the market p. 39
- Capital expenditures of telecommunications operators p. 45
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Forecasts for the telecommunications market in Poland p. 48
- Market development forecasts for 2010-2015 p. 48
- Key trends on the Polish market in the upcoming years p. 55
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Legislation and institutional environment of the telecommunications market p. 57
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Telecommunications law p. 57
- Planned amendments to the telecommunications law p. 58
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Regulatory offices and telecommunications industry institutions p. 58
- The UKE p. 58
- The UOKiK p. 59
- The KRRiT p. 60
- Telecommunications industry organisations p. 60
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Other important legal and regulatory changes p. 61
- Act on support for the development of telecommunications services and networks p. 61
- Broadband network development programme p. 62
- Agreement concluded by the UKE and TP SA p. 62
- Modified MTRs p. 63
- Tenders for frequencies p. 64
- IPv6 for individual customers p. 64
- Telecoms Reform Package p. 65
- European Commission’s plans regarding telecommunications p. 65
- Future of radio spectrum p. 65
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Telecommunications law p. 57
- Extra: Key capital groups on the Polish telecommunications market p. 66
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Results of the survey among the largest telecommunications companies in Poland p. 69
- Introduction p. 69
- Assessment of the situation on the Polish telecommunications market and forecasts for the near future p. 70
- Value of the telecommunications market in Poland p. 72
- Barriers to and stimuli for the growth of the Polish telecommunications market p. 76
- Assessment of UKE’s activities p. 79
- Assessment of agreement of 22 October 2009 concluded by Telekomunikacja Polska and Office of Electronic Communications p. 81
- Act on support for the development of telecommunications services and networks of 17 July 2010 – its impact on telecommunications market p. 82
- Households’ spending on telecommunications services p. 85
- Enterprises’ expenditure on telecommunications services p. 86
- Growth prospects for individual segments of telecommunications market p. 88
- Growth prospects for virtual operators p. 92
- LTE networks and market trends for upcoming years p. 92
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Mobile telephony market p. 99
- Value of the market p. 99
- Number of users and mobile penetration p. 103
- Mobile telephony market structure p. 108
- Market trends and developments p. 111
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Players on the mobile market p. 119
- PTK Centertel p. 119
- Polkomtel p. 120
- PTC p. 122
- P4 p. 123
- Forecasts for the mobile market in Poland p. 125
- Extra: MVNO market in Poland p. 128
- Extra: Distribution and mobile handset market in Poland p. 134
- Extra: Mobile internet access p. 138
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Fixed-line telephony market p. 143
- Number of fixed lines and fixed-line market penetration p. 147
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Market trends and developments p. 149
- WLR/LLU p. 149
- VoIP market p. 151
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Structure of the fixed-line market p. 156
- Domestic connections market (LC and DLD) p. 159
- Fixed-to-mobile connections market p. 162
- International connections market p. 165
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Key players on the fixed-line market p. 168
- Telekomunikacja Polska (TP SA) p. 168
- Netia p. 173
- Telefonia Dialog p. 175
- Multimedia Polska p. 176
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Other operators p. 177
- GTS Poland p. 177
- Mediatel p. 178
- MNI Telecom p. 178
- TK Telekom p. 179
- Forecasts for the fixed-line market in Poland p. 180
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Data transmission, line rental and ISP market p. 183
- Market value and growth rate p. 183
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Data transmission market p. 185
- Current situation and market trends p. 186
- Dial-up market p. 189
- Broadband internet access market p. 191
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Key players on the DLISP market p. 196
- TP SA p. 197
- Netia p. 199
- Exatel p. 200
- GTS Poland p. 200
- TK Telekom p. 201
- Telefonia Dialog p. 202
- Crowley Data Poland p. 203
- NASK p. 203
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Cable television operators p. 204
- UPC p. 207
- Multimedia Polska p. 208
- Vectra p. 208
- Aster p. 209
- Forecasts for the DLISP market in Poland p. 209
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List of graphs p. 221
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List of tables p. 229
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About PMR p. 231
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Contact PMR p. 232
List of graphs
- Value (PLN bn) and growth rate (%) of the telecommunications market in Poland, 2000-2010
- WIG20 and WIG-Telekom index values, 10 Aug 2007-30 Sep 2011
- Value (PLN bn) and growth rate (%) of the telecommunications services market in Poland, 2000-2010
- Telecommunications market in Poland – particular segments’ shares in the total value of the market (PLN bn, %), 2010
- Shares of multi-play services in the Polish mass market, by number of subscribers, 2008-2010
- Aggregate monthly revenue per user of fixed-line and mobile telephone services and permanent internet access in Poland (PLN), 2001-2011
- Number of permanent internet lines and of broadband internet lines in Poland (m), 2004-H1 2011
- Number of SIM cards in MVNOs and number of MVNOs operating in Poland (‘000), H1 2007-H1 2011
- Value of capital expenditure of telecoms in Poland (PLN bn), 2006-2010
- Value of capital expenditure on internet access in Poland, by technology (PLN bn), 2006-2010
- Growth rate for mobile operators’ capital expenditure in Poland (%), 2007-2010
- Share of individual segments in the total value of TP Group’s capital investment in Poland, Q4 2009-Q2 2011
- Value (PLN bn) and growth rate (%) of the Polish telecommunications market, 2010-2015
- Value (PLN bn) and growth rate (%) of the Polish telecommunications services market, 2010-2015
- Value of the Polish telecommunications market by segments (PLN bn), 2000-2015
- Polish telecommunications market – shares of individual segments in the market’s total value (%), 2000-2015
- Polish telecommunications services market – growth rates of particular segments (%), 2000-2015
- TP Group
- Polska Telefonia Cyfrowa Group
- Netia Group
- Polkomtel/Cyfrowy Polsat/Aero2 Group
- Respondent’s position
- What is your assessment of 2010 for your company?
- How, in your opinion, will 2011 turn out for your company relative to 2010?
- PMR telecoms climate indicator, 2002-2011
- Did the value of the Polish telecommunications market increase or decrease in 2010 relative to 2009?
- In your opinion, will the value of the Polish telecommunications market increase or decrease in 2011 relative to 2010?
- In your opinion, will the value of the Polish telecommunications market increase or decrease in 2012 relative to 2011?
- In your opinion, telecoms’ 2011 investments will…
- In your opinion, what are currently the crucial barriers to the growth of the Polish telecommunications market?
- In your opinion, which factors could be the best stimuli for the Polish telecommunications market during the upcoming 24 months?
- What is your opinion of the UKE’s activities during the last five years?
- In your opinion, which UKE’s actions are currently crucial?
- What is your opinion of the agreement? Do its parties fulfil their mutual obligations? Does it support growth of the telecoms industry? What is the purpose of the agreement?
- On 17 July 2010 the Act on support for the development of telecommunications services and networks, so-called mega-act, entered into force. In your opinion, how has the act affected development of the broadband infrastructure in Poland?
- The Act enables local authorities to function as telecommunications operators. Do you think local authorities will be successful in this role?
- How do you assess the functioning of the mega-act? Does it meet the expectations? Does it make the infrastructure develop faster?
- In your opinion, how will households’ expenses on individual telecommunications services be distributed during the upcoming 12 months?
- In your opinion, how will enterprises’ expenses on individual telecommunications services be distributed during the upcoming 12 months?
- Number of fixed lines per 100 citizens in 2009-2011 and forecast for 2012
- Number of SIM cards per 100 citizens in 2009-2011 and forecast for 2012
- In your opinion, during the upcoming 24 months, the value of the Polish market of…
- In your opinion, what are the growth prospects for the following sectors in the upcoming 24 months?
- In your opinion, how is the growing penetration of smartphones affecting a demand for particular telecommunications services in 2011?
- In your opinion, which value-added services in mobile telephony will develop the fastest within the upcoming 24 months?
- In your opinion, why in Poland, unlike in other Central and Eastern European countries, is there a relatively large number of virtual operators (currently 23 MVNOs)?
- In your opinion, how is the development of LTE technology affecting the demand for data transfer in mobile networks in 2011? The demand for data transfer....
- In your opinion, does the LTE technology have a chance to really compete with currently used technologies on the Polish market in 2012-2015?
- Statements regarding LTE technology and its impact on the market and infrastructure in Poland. Please declare whether you agree, disagree or have no opinion on a given issue.
- Considering the rebranding of Idea to Orange and Era to T-Mobile, does the rebranding of mobile operators’ brands in Poland into big international brands favour their better awareness?
- When do you think a commercial launch of mobile television will take place in Poland?
- Please quote a maximum of three most crucial events on the Polish telecommunications market within the past 12 months
- How will takeover of Polkomtel by Zygmunt Solorz-Zak affect the telecommunications market in Poland?
- Finally, in your opinion, which trends will be the most noticeable on the Polish telecommunications market in 2012-2014?
- Value (PLN bn) and growth rate (%) of Polish mobile market, 2002-2010
- Biggest operators’ shares on the Polish mobile telephony market, by revenue (PLN bn, %), 2010
- Shares of biggest operators in the Polish mobile market, by revenue (PLN bn, %), H1 2011
- Quarterly values of the Polish mobile telephony market (PLN bn), Q1 2004-Q4 2011
- Mobile penetration in Poland (%), 1998-H1 2011
- Number (m) and year-on-year growth rate (%) of SIM cards in mobile networks in Poland, 1998-H1 2011
- Shares of individual mobile networks in the Polish mobile telephony market, by number of SIM cards (m, %), H1 2011
- Number of new users net on the Polish mobile market (‘000), 1998-2010
- Key players’ shares in net additions on the Polish mobile market (‘000, %), H1 2011
- Total connection time (m minutes) and growth rate (%) in mobile telephony in Poland, 2005-2010
- Total number (m) and growth rate (%) of SMSs sent in mobile networks in Poland, 2005-2010
- Total number (m) and growth rate (%) of MMSs sent in mobile networks in Poland, 2005-2010
- Polish mobile operators’ revenue (PLN bn), by categories, 2005-2010
- Shares of pre- and post-paid segments in the total number of SIM cards in Poland (%), 2002-H1 2011
- Share of operators in the Polish post-paid mobile telephony market, by number of SIM cards (m, %), H1 2011
- Share of operators in the Polish pre-paid mobile telephony market, by number of SIM cards (m, %), H1 2011
- Polish mobile operators’ blended average ARPU (PLN), 2001-H1 2011
- Average revenue per minute of connection in mobile telephony in Poland (PLN), 2001-H1 2011
- Share of non-voice services in total revenue of mobile operators in Poland (%), 2001-H1 2011
- Schedule of changes in MTRs asymmetry between P4 and three largest MNOs in Poland (% – maximum asymmetry), 2010-H1 2013
- Number (m) and year-on-year growth rate (%) of SIM cards in mobile networks in Poland, 2010-2015
- Share of pre- and post-paid segments in the total number of mobile users in Poland (%), 2010-2015
- Mobile telephony penetration in Poland (%), 2010-2015
- Value (PLN bn) and growth rate (%) of the mobile telephony market in Poland, 2010-2015
- Shares of individual MVNOs in the Polish mobile network market, by number of SIM cards (‘000, %), H1 2011
- Sales volume (m units) and growth rate (%) of mobile telephones in Poland, 2003-2011
- Shares of largest manufacturers in the mobile handsets market in Poland, by sales volume (m, %), 2010
- Volume (m units) and growth (%) of smartphones sales in Poland, 2008-2011
- Largest distributors on the mobile market in Poland, by number of outlets, H1 2011
- Number of mobile internet subscribers to networks of biggest mobile operators in Poland (‘000), 2006-2010
- Value (PLN bn) and growth rate (%) of the Polish fixed-line telephony market, 2001-2010
- Shares of key players in the fixed-line market in Poland, by revenue (PLN m, %), 2010
- Number of lines (m) and penetration (%) of the fixed-line telephony in Poland, 2000-H1 2011
- Shares of key players in the fixed-line telephony market in Poland, by number of lines (number, %), H1 2011
- Number of TP SA lines handled by alternative operators based on WLR (‘000), Q1 2007-Q4 2011
- Number of subscribers to Netia’s services provided based on LLU in fixed-line telephony and internet access, Q3 2008-Q2 2011
- VoIP’s share in total time of voice connections in fixed-line networks in Poland (%), 2001-2010
- Percentage of internet users declaring that they use voice communicators in Poland (%), 2010
- VoIP telephony market by number of users in networks of key types of providers in Poland (‘000), 2006-2010
- VoIP market in Poland by number of users at key players (’000, %), 2010e
- Structure of the fixed-line telephony market in Poland, by operators’ revenue sources (%), 2002-2010
- Structure of fixed-line telephony market in Poland, by operators’ revenues from subscription fees and connections (%), 2002-2010
- Value (PLN bn) and growth rate (%) of the voice connections in fixed-line networks in Poland, 2002-2010
- Value (PLN bn) and growth rate (%) of revenue generated by subscription fees in fixed-line networks in Poland, 2002-2010
- Value of voice connections in fixed-line networks in Poland by key market segments (PLN bn), 2002-2010
- Value (PLN bn) and growth rate (%) of domestic connections market in Poland, 2002-2010
- Value of domestic connections market in Poland, by fixed-line and VoIP segments (PLN bn), 2002-2010
- Volume (bn minutes) and growth rate (%) of domestic connections market in Poland, 2001-2010
- Volume of domestic connections market in Poland by fixed-line and VoIP segments (bn minutes), 2001-2010
- Structure of domestic connections market in Poland by biggest players’ revenue (PLN m, %), 2010
- Value (PLN bn) and growth rate (%) of F2M connections market in Poland, 2002-2010
- Value of F2M connections market in Poland, by fixed-line and VoIP segments (PLN bn), 2001-2010
- Volume (bn minutes) and growth rate (%) of F2M connections market in Poland, 2001-2010
- Volume of F2M connections market in Poland, by fixed-line and VoIP segments (bn minutes), 2001-2010
- Shares of TP SA, Netia and other operators in F2M connections market in Poland by revenue (PLN m, %), 2010
- Value (PLN bn) and growth rate (%) of ILD connections market in Poland, 2002-2010
- Value of ILD connections market in Poland, by fixed-line and VoIP segments (PLN bn), 2001-2010
- Volume (bn minutes) and growth rate (%) of ILD connections market in Poland, 2001-2010
- Volume of ILD connections market in Poland, by fixed-line and VoIP segments (bn minutes), 2001-2010
- Shares of TP SA, Netia and other operators in ILD connections market in Poland, by revenue (PLN m, %), 2010
- Value of TP Group’s capital expenditure in Poland (PLN m), Q1 2010-Q2 2011
- Value of TP Group’s capital expenditure in Poland by sectors (PLN m, %), H1 2011
- TP SA’s consolidated revenue by segments (%), H1 2005-H1 2011
- TP SA’s revenue from fixed-line telephone services in Poland, by subscription fee and connection charges (%), 2002-H1 2011
- TK Telekom’s revenue in Poland, by segments (PLN m, %), 2010
- Number of fixed lines (m) and fixed-line penetration (%) in Poland, 2010-2015
- WLR/LLU share in the total number of fixed lines in Poland (%), 2010-2015
- Value (PLN bn) and growth rate (%) of the fixed-line telephony market in Poland, 2010-2015
- Value (PLN bn) and growth rate (%) of the DLISP market in Poland, 2001-2010
- Polish DLISP market – shares of individual segments in the market value (PLN m, %), 2010
- Value (PLN m) and growth rate (%) of the internet access market in Poland, 2001-2010
- Number of users (m) and internet penetration (%) in Poland, 1999-H1 2011
- Proportion of internet users in Poland using the internet every day or almost every day (%), Q2 2003-Q2 2011
- Proportion of internet users in Poland using the internet at home (%), Q2 2003-Q2 2011
- Proportion of users in Poland using the internet at home, by fixed broadband access and wireless access (%), H1 2005-H1 2011
- Types of internet connections in households in Poland (%), 2009-2010
- Value (PLN m) and growth rate (%) of the dial-up market in Poland, 2001-2010
- Number of dial-up customers of TP SA (‘000), Q2 2006-Q2 2011
- Dial-up traffic in Poland (bn minutes), 2001-2011
- Value (PLN m) and growth rate (%) of the fixed-line internet access market in Poland, 2001-2010
- Percentage of broadband connections in Poland by transfer capacity to end-user, H1 2011
- Broadband internet subscribers (‘000) to telecommunications operators in xDSL and to CaTV operators in Poland, 2001-H1 2011
- BSA-based services subscribers in Poland (‘000), by shares of key players, H1 2011
- Broadband internet access market in Poland – share of key players/access types by number of subscribers (‘000), H1 2010
- Broadband internet penetration rate in Poland (%), 2002-H1 2011
- TP SA’s revenue on the DLISP market in Poland (PLN m), by particular segments, 2002-2010
- Number of broadband internet subscribers handled by TP SA on the retail and wholesale market (‘000), Q1 2007-Q2 2011
- Number of broadband internet subscribers handled by Netia (‘000), Q1 2008-Q2 2011
- TK Telekom revenue structure (PLN m, %), 2010
- Telefonia Dialog’s number of subscribers and rate of change (%), 2003-H1 2011
- Number of CaTV operators registered by the UKE, 2005-2011
- Value (PLN m) and growth rate (%) of total investments of CaTV operators in Poland, 2007-2010
- Biggest CaTV operators in Poland by revenue from internet access services (PLN m, %), 2010
- Biggest CaTV operators in Poland by number of subscribers to internet access services (‘000), H1 2010
- Biggest CaTV operators in Poland by number of subscribers to internet access services (‘000), H1 2011
- Number of users (m) and penetration rate (%) of the internet in Poland, 2010-2015
- Number of subscribers to broadband access in Poland (‘000), by business and household segments, 2007-2015
- Number of internet subscribers in Poland (m), by broadband access technologies used, 2007-2015
- Shares of particular technologies in the number of fixed-line broadband connections used in Poland (%), 2007-2015
- Total number of subscribers to broadband internet in Poland (‘000), by fixed-line and mobile segments, 2007-2015
- Net number of activations on the internet access market in Poland, by fixed-line and mobile access (‘000), 2008-2015
- Volume (‘000) and growth rate (%) of portable computers in Poland, 2007-2015
- Value of particular segments on the DLISP market in Poland (PLN m), 2001-2015
- Number of broadband connections in TP SA network, by connections handled directly by TP SA and based on BSA/LLU (‘000), 2007-2015
- Value (PLN bn) and growth rate (%) of the DLISP market in Poland, 2010-2015
List of tables
- Telecommunications market in Poland – key data and forecasts, 2010-2015
- Key events on the telecoms market until September 2011 – Part 1
- Changes in value of the telecommunications market (%) in 2009-2010
- Forecasted changes in value of the telecommunications market (%) in 2010-2011
- Forecasted changes in value of the telecommunications market (%) in 2011-2012
- Forecasted number of fixed lines and of SIM cards at the end of 2012
- Key data for the mobile telephony market in Poland
- Value (PLN) and year-on-year growth (%) of blended ARPU of leading mobile operators in Poland, 2005-H1 2011
- PTK Centertel: key data, 2001-H1 2011
- Polkomtel: key data, 2001-H1 2011
- PTC: key data, 2001-H1 2011
- P4: key data, 2007-H1 2011
- MVNOs present on or intending to enter the Polish mobile market, H1 2011
- Intended and estimated number of users of selected MVNOs in Poland, H1 2011
- 3G coverage by particular mobile operators in Poland1 (%), end of H1 2010 and H1 2011
- Number of permits for base stations in selected frequencies for particular mobile operators in Poland, H1 2011
- Key data for fixed-line telephony market in Poland
- TP SA: key data, 2000-H1 2011
- Netia: key data, 2000-H1 2011
- Telefonia Dialog: key data, 2000-H1 2011
- Multimedia Polska: key data, 2002-H1 2011
- Key data for the data transmission, line rental and ISP market (DLISP) in Poland
- Growth rate for particular DLISP market segments (%), 2010-2015
- Standard broadband internet access offered to Polish individual subscribers, by price (PLN) and connection speed, 2009-2015
Telecommunications market in Poland 2011
Development forecasts for 2011-2015
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