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Telecommunications market in Russia 2011Development forecasts for 2011-2015 |
- the most current and comprehensive overview of the Russian telecommunications market
- analyses of the entire telecoms market as well as its individual segments
- forecasts for the three vertical segments: mobile telephony, fixed-line telephony, data transmission and internet services provision.
Besides PMR’s own data, analyses and forecasts, the report is enhanced by interviews with major operators on the telecommunications market. The report is also further supported by analysis of the key indicators of the Russian economy, as well as includes a regional focus, crucial in a country such as Russia.
Key report highlights
- a thorough compendium of knowledge on the telecommunications market in Russia – a detailed analysis of the key market segments
- essential information about the market value, revenues and profits of key market players, as well as subscriber and traffic numbers
- major telecom industry indicators such as ARPU, MoU, churn, SAC, CAPEX, etc.
- top 100 telecommunications service providers in Russia by revenues
- a profile of all the key market directions and technologies developed, and to be developed in Russia (e.g. 3G and LTE network development and perspectives, WiMAX, MVNO business, FTTx, etc.).
- forecasts for particular market segments and operational numbers in the period 2011-2015
- coverage of specialised subsugments, such as satellite communications or IP TV market.
Questions the report answers
- What is the current situation on the telecommunications market in Russia?
- What are the key trends and tendencies on the telecoms market in Russia?
- How has the Russian telecoms industry recovered after the crisis?
- What is the state of the telecoms infrastructure and investment in the country?
- How is the Russian telecoms market going to develop until 2016?
- What will be the fastest growing telecom market segments in Russia in the coming five years?
The report will be most useful...
…when starting operations in one of the segments of the telecommunications market in Russia…when estimating the value of a telecommunications operator and wishing to compare it with Russian companies
…when willing to sell to Russian telecom companies
…when effecting a M&A on the Russia telecoms market
…when developing a corporate strategy
…when analysing investment opportunities in the Russian telecoms market
…when monitoring key events and trends on the Russian telecoms market
…when estimating the potential of particular telecom market segments in Russia
…when making own forecasts about Russian telecoms market and its components
…when making in-house analyses for the management or shareholder.
The publication is dedicated for:
- major fixed-line and mobile telephony providers, CaTV companies and ISPs operating in Russia
- top marketing managers and marketing staff of companies active or connected with the telecoms market in Russia and CEE or considering entry
- major Western European telecom companies planning expansion, looking for acquisition targets in Russia and CEE
- telecom equipment vendors
- major ICT vendors whose target is telecom operators in Russia
- business research, consulting and analysis companies
- financial advisers, brokerage houses, investment banks and other institutions with interests in investment in the ICT sector
- state institutions, agencies, embassies and industry organisations.
Companies mentioned in this report:
MTS, Vimpelcom, Megafon, Rostelecom, Tele 2, SkyLink, Smarts, Motiv, TTK, MGTS, Skartel, Akado, Enforta, ER-Telecom, Central Telegraph, Start Telecom, Rascom, Orange Business Services, RETN, Telia Sonera, Eurasia Telecom, Tascom, OBIT, Gars Telecom, RTComm, Caravan.
Extract from this report
- In 2010 the value of the telecommunications services market in Russia increased by 9.9% from RUB 1,044bn in 2009 to RUB 1,147bn in 2010. The mobile telephony market accounted for the largest part of the telecommunications market in 2010.
- There are around 10,000 companies operating in the telecommunications sector in Russia. However, a large majority of them are local firms offering their services only locally and on a very small scale. Most of those small companies focus on the ISP market.
- There are four major players in the Russian telecommunications market: the three largest mobile operators (MTS, Vimpelcom, Megafon) and Rostelecom, which after the restructuring of Svyazinvest controls most of the fixed-line market revenues in the country.
Market commentary by expert
In 2010, the overall economic recovery in Russia became one of the main market growth drivers of the Russian telecommunications industry. More promising macroeconomic indicators resulted in a more optimistic situation in most of the market segments. A good example is the mobile telephony market – the mobility of population is constantly increasing in Russia. Further migration of the users from fixed to mobile networks became an additional factor for market increase. The market has already reached a very high level of penetration as measured in SIM card numbers.Despite a high level of saturation and pressure on prices in 2010, at the beginning of 2011 mobile ARPU stabilised, and even showed modest growth in the second half of the year. It is worth noting that the recovery after a crisis once again pushed up the demand for mobile services other than voice. Russian telecoms market becomes more mature, however it still represents a high potential in some areas. Development of 3G networks caused redistribution of value added services market in Russia in favour of 3G licence holders. During the last two years the value of the mobile internet market in Russia more than doubled.
Paweł Olszynka, IT&Telecom Head Analyst
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Methodology p. 11
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Executive Summary p. 15
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Economic and demographic situation p. 27
- Macroeconomic background p. 27
- Demographic background p. 29
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Telecommunications market in Russia p. 33
- Current market situation p. 33
- Key trends, characteristics and events p. 36
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Key players on the telecommunications market p. 42
- Consolidation of the telecommunications industry p. 42
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Market transparency and business risk p. 44
- Corruption p. 44
- Bureaucracy p. 45
- Tax Law p. 45
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Regulatory issues and the institutional environment p. 45
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Russian Federal Law on Communications p. 45
- Latest crucial amendment: the dominating operator p. 46
- Ministry of Mass Communications p. 47
- Foreign expansion of Russian telecommunication groups p. 47
- Reorganisation of VimpelCom p. 47
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Russian Federal Law on Communications p. 45
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Market development forecast for 2011-2015 p. 49
- Key market trends in 2011-2015 p. 49
- Recovery after the economic crisis of 2009 p. 49
- Market value forecasts for 2011-2015 p. 51
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Extra: Main capital groups on the Russian telecommunications market p. 53
- Alfa Group p. 53
- Sistema p. 54
- Telecominvest p. 54
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Extra: Wholesale telecommunications market in Russia p. 55
- Traffic transmission, IP transit and line rental market p. 55
- Leading operators on the wholesale telecoms market p. 58
- Market development forecasts for 2011-2015 p. 60
- Extra: Corporate segment of the telecommunications market in Russia p. 61
- Extra: Satellite telecommunications services in Russia p. 65
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The mobile telephony market p. 69
- Current market situation p. 69
- Structure of mobile value-added services market p. 72
- Market structure p. 75
- Development of MVNOs p. 77
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Key trends on the mobile market p. 78
- Number and penetration of mobile telephony users p. 78
- Pre-paid and post-paid subscribers p. 81
- Business vs individual users p. 82
- Key market indicators (ARPU, AUPU, APPM, SAC, Churn) p. 84
- Pricing of the mobile telephony services p. 89
- Mobile handset market p. 94
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Key players on the mobile market p. 98
- Mobile TeleSystems p. 98
- MegaFon p. 102
- VimpelCom p. 106
- Tele2 Russia p. 110
- SMARTS p. 112
- Sky Link p. 114
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Market development forecasts for 2011-2015 p. 117
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Key short-term trends p. 117
- Further consolidation of mobile telephony market in the country p. 118
- Growing competition and further decline in the prices p. 118
- Development of 3G networks and race for LTE licence p. 119
- Market value forecasts for 2011-2015 p. 119
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Key short-term trends p. 117
- Extra: M2M services market in Russian mobile telephony networks p. 121
- Extra: Mobile payments in Russia p. 123
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Fixed-line telephony market p. 125
- Current market situation p. 125
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Key trends on the fixed-line market p. 127
- Fixed-line telephony penetration p. 127
- Structure of the fixed telephony market in Russia p. 129
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Situation in particular market segments p. 130
- Local telephony market p. 130
- Internal zone, DLD and ILD market p. 133
- Tariffs for fixed-line telephony services p. 136
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Key players on the fixed-line market p. 139
- Rostelecom p. 139
- MGTS p. 145
- TTK (TransTelekom) p. 146
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Market development forecast for 2011-2015 p. 148
- Key market trends in 2011-2015 p. 148
- Market value forecasts for 2011-2015 p. 149
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ISP market p. 151
- Current market situation p. 151
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Key trends in the ISP market p. 154
- Wired broadband internet access p. 154
- Wireless internet access p. 155
- Popularity of wired and wireless internet access technologies p. 157
- Institutional vs household segment p. 160
- Number and penetration of internet users p. 161
- Prices and speed of connection on the Russian ISP market p. 163
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Key players on the ISP market p. 167
- Akado Group p. 170
- Central Telegraph p. 172
- ER-Telecom p. 173
- Prestij Internet (brand name Enforta) p. 175
- Scartel (brand name Yota) p. 177
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Market development forecasts for 2011-2015 p. 180
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Key trends on the ISP market in 2011-2015 p. 180
- Expansion of the broadband internet in the regions of Russia p. 181
- Wired and wireless internet access p. 182
- Content development and capacity utilisation in Russian telecom networks p. 183
- Market value forecasts for 2011-2015 p. 184
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Key trends on the ISP market in 2011-2015 p. 180
- Extra: Pay TV market in Russia p. 186
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List of graphs p. 191
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List of tables p. 197
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About PMR p. 199
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Contact PMR p. 200
List of graphs
- Key economic indicators in Russia: GDP growth rate (%, y-o-y), CPI (%, y-o-y), unemployment rate (%, end of the year), 2003-2011 28
- Growth rate (%) of real disposable income in Russia, 2003-2010 28
- Population in Russia (m) and growth rate (%), 2001-2010 29
- Total number of cities and towns by size and population (m) in Russia, 2010 30
- Russian Federal Districts and their populations (millions and % of total), 2010 31
- Value (RUB bn) and growth rate (%) of the telecommunications market in Russia, 2002-2010 34
- Value (RUB bn) of major segments of the telecommunications market in Russia, 2001-2010 34
- Shares of household and institutional segments in the value of the telecommunications market in Russia (RUB bn, %), 2010 35
- Value (RUB bn) and number of M&A deals in telecommunications sector in Russia, 2004–Q1-Q3 2010 43
- Investments (RUB bn) and growth rate (%) in the telecommunications industry in Russia, 2006-2011 50
- CAPEX (RUB bn) of leading telecom operators in Russia, 2008-2011 51
- Value (RUB bn) and growth rate (%) of telecommunications market in Russia, 2010-2015 51
- Value (RUB bn) and share (%) of main segments of the telecommunications market in Russia, 2010 and 2015 52
- Value (RUB bn) and growth rate (%) of the wholesale telecommunications market in Russia, 2003-2010 55
- Value (RUB bn) of the line rental, voice traffic transit and IP transit market in Russia, 2003-2010 56
- Shares (%) of leading players on the market of IP transit and line rental services in Russia, 2010 58
- Number of connections with autonomous systems of leading Russian IP transit operators, 2010 59
- Value of line rental, voice traffic transit and IP transit market in Russia (RUB bn), 2010-2015 60
- Total number (‘000) of companies by employee level in Russia, 2010 61
- Value of main segments of the corporate telecommunications market in Russia (RUB bn), 2007-2010 62
- Share of the regions in the total corporate spending in Russia (%), 2010 62
- Penetration of IP telephony in Russia (as % of all active companies), 2009-2013 63
- Value of the main segments of satellite communications market in Russia (RUB), 2007-2010 66
- Number of VSATs operated by Russian companies at the end of 2010 66
- Market of GLONASS navigation equipment in Russia (‘000 units), 2008-2015 68
- Value (RUB bn) and growth rate (%) of mobile telephony market in Russia, 2000-2010 70
- Cumulative revenue from mobile telephony services and total revenues from mobile business in Russia (RUB bn), 2000-2010 70
- Value of voice and non-voice value-added services in mobile telecommunications networks in Russia (RUB bn), 2001-2010 71
- Growth rate of voice and non-voice added value services in mobile telecommunications networks in Russia (%, y-o-y), 2002-2010 72
- Value of the main segments of VAS market in Russia (RUB bn), 2009-Q1 2011 72
- Value share of main segments on mobile VAS market in Russia (%), 2009-Q1 2011 73
- Value share of leading operators on mobile VAS market in Russia (%), 2009-Q1 2011 74
- Mobile VAS ARPU in Russia (RUB), 2009-Q1 2011 75
- Structure of mobile telephony market in Russia: shares of leading operators by the number of registered SIM cards (m, %), June 2011 76
- Structure of mobile telephony market in Russia: shares of leading operators by mobile service revenue (RUB bn, %), 2010 77
- Total number of MVNOs’ subscribers in Russia (’000), 2009-2010 78
- Number (m) and growth rate (%) of registered SIM cards on mobile telephony market in Russia, 2000-2010 79
- Mobile telephony penetration in Russia by federal districts (%), 2010 80
- Share of pre-paid and post-paid subscribers in the total number of SIM cards served by mobile telephony operators in Russia (%), 2000-2010 81
- Value (RUB bn) and share (%) of private and corporate sectors in the revenues of mobile operators in Russia, 2010 82
- Share of the leading mobile operators in the total number of organisations which use corporate mobile telephony services in Russia (%), 2011 83
- Monthly average mobile ARPU (RUB) and growth rate (%, y-o-y) in Russia, 2000-2010 84
- Monthly RUB ARPU growth rate in Russia (%, y-o-y), 2007-Q1 2011 85
- Voice and VAS monthly mobile ARPU in Russia (RUB), 2007-Q1 2011 85
- ARPU of leading mobile operators in Russia (RUB), 2010 86
- AUPU (minutes) and growth rate (%) on the mobile telephony market in Russia, 2000-2010 87
- Average price per minute on the mobile telephony market in Russia (RUB), 2006-Q1 2011 87
- Voice APPM of leading mobile operators in Russia (RUB), 2008-Q1 2011 88
- Monthly cost of the low basket in different regions of Russia (RUB), October 2010 89
- Monthly cost of the medium basket in different regions of Russia (RUB), October 2010 90
- The cost of the high basket in different regions of Russia (RUB), October 2010 91
- Average monthly prices of low, medium and high mobile baskets in Russia (RUB), by operator, October 2010 92
- Average monthly cost of the integrated mobile basket in Russia (RUB), 2006-2010 93
- Volume (m) and growth rate (%) of sales of mobile handsets in Russia, 2000-2010 94
- Value (RUB bn) and volume (m) of smartphone sales in Russia, 2009-2011 95
- Value (RUB bn) and volume (m) of 3G phone (UMTS) sales in Russia, 2005-2010 95
- Volume of branded handsets sold by the operators in Russia (’000), 2010 96
- Sales revenue (RUB bn) and total number of stores (’000) of the leading mobile retailers in Russia, 2010 97
- Value (RUB bn) and share (%) of mobile telecommunications services in revenue of MegaFon in Russia, 2010 102
- Number of subscribers of MegaFon (m) by federal districts in Russia, 2010 103
- Value (RUB bn) and share (%) of main segments in mobile revenue of VimpelCom in Russia, 2010 106
- Number of 2G/3G base stations of VimpelCom in Russia, 2006-2010 108
- Sales revenue structure of Sky Link (%), 2010 115
- Monthly ARPU of Sky Link (RUB), 2009-2010 117
- Value of voice and value-added services segments of the mobile telephony market in Russia (RUB bn), 2010-2015 119
- Annual growth of the mobile telecommunications market in Russia and of specific segments (%), by value, 2010-2015 120
- Value of the main segments of M2M market in Russia (RUB bn), 2008-2010 121
- Number of appliances (m) and shares (%) of leading M2M services providers in Russia, 2010 122
- Value of the m-commerce market in Russia (RUB bn), 2008-2011 123
- Value (RUB bn) and growth rate (%) of the fixed-line telephony market in Russia, 2001-2010 126
- Value (RUB bn) and share (%) of specific segments of the fixed telephony market in Russia, 2010 126
- Number of fixed telephone lines (m) and growth rate (%) in Russia, 2000-Q1 2011 127
- Number (m) and growth rate (%) of fixed telephony lines in the residential sector in Russia, 2000-Q1 2011 128
- Fixed telephony line penetration in Russia (%), 2000-Q1 2011 128
- Penetration of fixed telephony lines by federal districts of Russia (%), 2010 129
- Value (RUB bn) and growth rate (%) of local fixed telephony market in Russia, 2000-2010 130
- Structure of local segment of fixed line telephony market in Russia: value (RUB bn) and share (%) of service revenues paid by the operators, 2010 131
- Value (RUB bn) and share (%) of institutional and residential segments in the local telephony market in Russia, 2010 131
- Value and volume shares of the leading operators on the telephony market in Russia (%), 2010 132
- Value (RUB bn) and growth rate (%) of ILD/DLD market in Russia, 2000-2010 133
- Volume of incoming and outgoing international voice traffic in Russia (billion minutes), 2007-2010 133
- Value (RUB bn) and share (%) of private and corporate users on the DLD/ILD market in Russia, 2010 134
- Estimated value of specific segments of the DLD/ILD market in Russia (RUB bn), 2009-2010 135
- Value share of joint Rostelecom in the DLD/ILD and internal zone calls market in Russia (%), 2009-2010 136
- Average monthly prices for unlimited local telephony service in Russia (RUB), 2000-2010 137
- Average price of the minute of local call in the fixed networks in Russia (RUB), 2000-2010 137
- Average per minute price of the DLD calls (distance of 600-1,200 km) in Russia (RUB), 2000-2010 138
- Value (RUB bn) and share (%) of individual segments in Rostelecom revenue, 2010 140
- Subscriber base growth plans of Rostelecom (m), by type of service, 2010 and 2015 143
- Structure of planned CAPEX at Rostelecom (%), 2011-2015 144
- Value (RUB bn) and share (%) of the main services in MGTS revenue in Russia, 2010 145
- Structure of voice traffic in Russia (%), 2005-2010 149
- Value of main segments of the fixed telephony market in Russia (RUB bn), 2010-2015 149
- Growth rate of main segments of the fixed telephony market in Russia (%, y-o-y), 2010-2015 150
- Value (RUB bn) and growth rate (%) of ISP market in Russia, 2001-2010 152
- Share of main technologies in the ISP market in Russia (%), 2005-2010 153
- Value (RUB bn) and growth rate (%) of fixed line broadband internet market in Russia, 2001-2010 154
- Number of internet subscribers in Russia (m), 2005-2010 154
- Value (RUB bn) and growth rate (%) of mobile and wireless ISP market in Russia, 2005-2010 155
- Volume of data traffic (PB) in mobile wireless telecommunication networks in Russia, 2007-2010 156
- Number of mobile internet users in Russia (m), 2006-2010 156
- Sales of 3G USB modems in Russia (m), 2009-2010 157
- Share of wired broadband technologies in the number of residential connections in Russia (%), July 2009 and July 2010 158
- Value (RUB bn) and share (%) of main technologies on the wireless internet market in Russia, 2010 159
- Number of cities by population covered by 3G networks of leading operators in Russia, July 2010 159
- Value (RUB bn) and share (%) of corporate and residential segments in the wired ISP market in Russia, 2010 160
- Number (m) and growth rate (%) of weekly internet users in Russia, at the end of the year, 2002-2010 162
- Internet penetration in Russia (%), 2002-Q1 2011 163
- Average monthly price for 1 Mbit/s internet access in Russia (RUB), 2009-2011 (spring) 163
- Average speed of fixed broadband connection (kbit/s), by the size of the cities and towns in Russia, 2010 164
- Shares of internet connection by the connection speed in Russia (%), November 2010 165
- Average and peak wireless internet connection speed of the providers in Moscow (Mbit/s), May 2011 166
- Average and peak wireless internet connection speed of the providers in St. Petersburg (Mbit/s), May 2011 166
- Number of regional internet providers by Federal Districts, Q3 2010 167
- Number of cities of presence of federal fixed-line internet providers in Russia, 2010-2011 168
- Leading ISPs in Russia: number of residential broadband internet subscribers (m) and share (%) in the market, Q1 2011 168
- Value of sales (RUB bn) and share (%) of the leading providers in the wireless internet market in Russia, 2010 169
- Structure of subscribers of ER-Telecom: number of subscribers (m) and share (%), May 2011 173
- Revenue structure of ER-Telecom: value (RUB bn) and share (%) of main product groups, 2010 174
- Value (RUB bn) and share (%) of sales for Yota on the main regional markets in Russia, Q1 2011 177
- Share of Yota customers, by the technology used for internet access in Russia (%), Q1 2011 178
- Volume of laptop computers sold in Russia (m), 2009-2011 180
- Share of daily, weekly and monthly audience in the total number of internet users in Russia (%), 2003-2011 (spring) 181
- Expected segmentation of internet users in Russia by type of access, 2011-2015f 182
- Shares of mobile internet users of MTS in Russia (%), by type of service, 2010-2015 183
- Value (RUB bn) and growth rate (%) of ISP market in Russia, 2010-2015 184
- Annual value growth rate of wired and wireless ISP market segments in Russia (%), 2010-2015 185
- Number of wireless and wired internet subscribers and internet users in Russia (m), 2010-2015 185
- Value (RUB bn) and growth rate (%) of the pay TV market in Russia, 2006-2010 186
- Monthly ARPU of pay TV services by technology in Russia (RUB), 2010 187
- Number of pay TV subscribers by technology in Russia (m), 2010 188
- Number (m) and market shares (%) of pay TV subscribers served by leading operators, 2010 188
List of tables
- Selected economic statistics for Russia (%), 2009-2011 15
- Telecommunications market in Russia: key data and forecasts, 2010-2015 25
- Most populated Russian cities (million), January 2011 30
- Key data on the Russian telecommunications market 33
- Calendar of key market events and developments on the Russian telecommunications market between 2001 and H1 2011 38-41
- Biggest telecommunications companies in Russia by revenues (RUB bn), 2009-2010 42
- Important M&A transactions in the telecommunications sector in Russia, H1 2010-H1 2011 43
- VimpelCom: consolidated data of global operations, 2009-Q1 2011 48
- Sistema: key financial data, 2004-2010 54
- Key data on the data transmission and wholesale telecommunications market in Russia 55
- Prices ($) for 1GB of internet transit, by the regions of Russia, 2006-2013 57
- Leading backbone telecommunications operators in Russia, 2010 59
- The internet prices for individual customers and corporate buyers in Moscow, 2011 64
- Selected telecom operators in the corporate segment of the telecommunications market in Russia, 2010 65
- Key data on the mobile telephony market in Russia 69
- Sales generated on the mobile telephony market by telephony providers in Russia, 2009-H1 2011 98
- Mobile TeleSystems: key financial data in Russia, 2004-H1 2011 98
- Mobile TeleSystems: key operating indicators in Russia, 2004-H1 2011 99
- MegaFon: key financial data in Russia, 2004-H1 2011 102
- MegaFon: key operating indicators in Russia, 2004-H1 2011 103
- VimpelCom: key financial data in Russia, 2004-H1 2011 106
- VimpelCom: key operating indicators in Russia, 2004-H1 2011 107
- Tele2 Russia: key financial data, 2005-H1 2011 110
- Tele2 Russia: key operating indicators, 2005-H1 2011 110
- SMARTS: key financial and operating data, 2005-2010 113
- Sky Link: key operating indicators, 2008-2010 114
- Key data on the fixed-line telephony market in Russia 125
- Leading fixed-line telephony operators in Russia by number of subscribers (m) and revenues (RUB bn), 2010 139
- Rostelecom: key financial data, 2008-Q1 2011 139
- Rostelecom: revenue breakdown by type of services (RUB bn), 2008-Q1 2011 140
- Rostelecom: number of subscribers (m), by type of services, 2008-Q1 2011 141
- MGTS: key financial and operating data, 2005-Q1 2011 145
- TTK: key financial data, 2007-Q1 2010 146
- Key data on the ISP market in Russia 151
- Monthly price of internet connection offered by Russian fixed line internet providers (RUB), August 2011 165
- Expected speed of connection in 3G networks by the size of the city in Russia (Mbit/s), 2010-2014 166
- Leading internet services providers in Russia, 2010 170
- Akado Group: key financial data, 2008-H1 2011 170
- Central Telegraph: key financial data, 2008-H1 2011 172
- ER-Telecom: key financial data, 2004-2010 174
- Enforta: key operating indicators, 2008-2010 175
- Scartel: key operating indicators, 2009-Q1 2010 (end of the period) 177
Telecommunications market in Russia 2011
Development forecasts for 2011-2015
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