Construction sector in Poland H2 2015 Development forecasts for 2015-2021

Construction sector in Poland H2 2015

Development forecasts for 2015-2021

Take advantage of the market wisdom that representatives of 200 construction companies active on the Polish market have contributed to this comprehensive report. They participated in a survey, conducted especially for this publication, on topics such as market performance, value and prospects for the future of the construction market and its three main segments: residential, non-residential and civil engineering.

 

 

Find out what the experts are saying about…

  • Planned projects in each major market segment of Polish construction
  • Financing options for projects in residential, non-residential and civil engineering construction
  • Recent developments in EU funding, wages and employment and cement manufacturing
  • The competitive atmosphere in Polish construction, with listings of financial and project information for 200 businesses.

 

Discover the answers to relevant market questions…

  • Which non-residential construction services have seen recent rises in demand and offer the most in terms of potential opportunity?
  • What is the total number of housing units planned for completion by 2020?
  • Which contractors have recently generated the most revenue on Poland’s construction market?
  • What are the forecasts for construction prices in the years ahead?
  • Which legal changes and regulations will have the most impact on the market?
  • What are the demand forecasts for construction permits in Poland?
  • What is the overall value of Poland’s construction market and how is this number predicted to change? What are the values of each segment?

 

Did you know...

 

  • We expect the construction market to grow by approximately 5% and reach PLN 185bn in 2015.
  • The most spectacular deals completed in recent months included the Porr group’s acquisition of Bilfinger Infrastructure PIMCO and the transaction in which Oaktree and PIMCO acquired Echo Investment.
  • The downswing in construction prices slowed in H1 2015, but the price fall accelerated again around the middle of the year.
  • Regarding the years after 2015, capex plans of water and sewage disposal companies amount to PLN 22bn. Given that the average annual expenditure has been PLN 5bn, this will keep construction companies very busy for four to five years.
  • The largest ongoing power projects include the construction of coal-fired units in Opole (PLN 9.4bn net, 2x900 MWe), Kozienice (PLN 5.1bn, 1,075 MWe) and Jaworzno (PLN 4.4bn, 910 MWe).
  • Skanska, Strabag oraz Budimex secured the largest numbers of office construction projects in 2015.
  • The top ten WSE-listed developers sold more than 6,700 flats in H1 2015, up by one-third over the previous year.

 

Companies analyzed in this report...

 

Skanska, Budimex, Dragados, Strabag, Polimex-Mostostal, Alstom Power, Erbud, Trakcja, PBG, Mostostal Warszawa, Rafako, Mota-Engil, Elektrobudowa, UNIBEP, Warbud, Porr, Mirbud, Mostostal Zabrze, Eurovia, Trasko Inwest, Górażdże Cement, Cemex Polska, Lafarge Cement, Lotos Asfalt, Orlen Asfalt, ArcelorMittal Poland, CELSA Huta Ostrowiec, CMC Zawiercie, Wienerberger Ceramika Budowlana, Roben Polska  i Wspólnicy, Xella Polska, Ruukki Polska, Icopal SA, Pruszyński, Roben Polska i Wspólnicy, Atlas, Selena SA, Mapei Polska, Ceramika Paradyż, Rovese, Opoczno, Rockwool Polska, Saint Gobain Construction Products Polska, Ursa Polska, Termo Organika, Yetico SA, Swisspor Polska, Vaillant Saunier Duval, Danfoss Poland, Rettig Heating, Aereco Wentylacja, Swegon, Dospel, Clima – Produkt, Daikin Airconditioning Poland , Lennox Polska 

 

This document aids industry professionals when…

  • Beginning a new business in Poland’s construction market
  • Planning and executing a merger or acquisition
  • Calculating market share of a specific company
  • Selecting investment options
  • Forecasting demand for building machinery and supplies.

 

This report was compiled to serve…

  • Distributors and manufacturers of building materials
  • Construction machinery manufacturers and distributors
  • Contracting companies conducting or initiating operations in Poland
  • Design and project management firms
  • Trade groups and commerce organizations.

Extract from this report

  • We estimate that cement production growth will be around 4-5% in 2015 as a whole, following which the volume of cement produced will exceed 16 million tonnes. Cement sales can return in 2017-2018 to the levels achieved in 2011 when plants managed to sell almost 19 million tonnes.
  • We expect that in 2015 the pace of the construction industry’s growth will only slightly exceed last year’s growth as it will be close to 6%. The projection is 3 percentage points lower than our expectations from the beginning of 2015. We anticipate that the industry’s performance in 2015 will be driven by increased growth in the second half of the year.

Market commentary by expert

 

"Following a correction period throughout 2012 and 2013, civil engineering construction will again drive the construction market in the years 2015-2018, underpinned by the 2014-2020 EU multiannual financial framework. The recent update of government-led schemes in road construction and railway construction will boost output generated by these segments in the coming years, though the upturn in the railway sector will be somewhat delayed. Moreover, a multitude of power projects will be pursued until 2019 and, additionally, many local authorities will continue their efforts to improve sewage disposal infrastructure compliant with the EU requirements. All these factors combined mean that the construction industry should deliver stable growth of around 10% a year in the next three years."

 

Bartłomiej Sosna,

 

Head Construction Analyst, PMR

 

 

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  • Methodology
  • Executive summary
  • Polish construction overview
    • Construction market value
    • Construction and assembly output
    • Employment and wages in construction
    • Construction prices and financial standing of construction companies
    • Business confidence in construction
    • Cement output
    • Legal changes relevant to the construction market
      • New Building Code
      • Amendment to the building law
      • Act regulating mortgage agreements
      • Act on transmission corridors
      • New Public Procurement Act
      • Special act on roads
      • Amended Spatial Planning and Development Act
      • New restructuring regulations for property developers
      • Changes to regulations applicable to Renewable Energy Sources
    • Macroeconomic overview
      • Results for 2014
      • Estimate for 2015
      • Medium-term outlook for 2016-2020
    • Development forecast for construction and assembly output in 2015-2021
  • Results of the survey of the 200 largest Polish construction firms
    • Introduction
      • Methodology used to calculate PMR Construction Confidence Indicator
    • Assessment of the situation of the Polish construction market
      • Construction Confidence Index
      • Most attractive segments of the construction market
      • Barriers to doing business
      • Main changes helpful in removing failings on the construction market
      • Difficulties collecting payments
      • Factors that facilitate doing business
      • Investment projects funded from the EU framework budget for 2014-2020
      • Strategies for addressing the crisis
      • Projections for prices and investments
      • Strategies for achieving a competitive advantage
      • Leading brands of plant and equipment used by major contractors
      • Projects co-financed by the European Union
      • Parliamentary elections and the situation in the construction market
      • Competitive environment
    • Overview and market standing of the largest Polish construction firms
      • Structure of construction companies
      • Subcontractor selection criteria
      • Performance of loss-making contracts and contracts priced below the investor’s cost estimate
      • Financial situation of the surveyed construction companies
  • Civil engineering construction
    • Situation on the civil engineering construction market
    • Environmental protection-related projects
      • Latest trends
      • Major projects
      • Forecasts for 2015-2021
    • Road transport
      • Latest trends
      • Major projects
      • Forecasts for 2015-2021
    • Railway transport
      • Latest trends
      • Major projects
      • Forecasts for 2015-2021
    • Hydrotechnical installations
      • Latest trends
      • Major projects
      • Forecasts for 2015-2021
    • Gross fixed capital formation in the heavy industry
      • Latest trends
      • Major projects
      • Forecasts for 2015-2021
    • Development forecast for civil engineering construction in 2015-2021
  • Non-residential construction
    • Situation in the non-residential construction market
    • Industrial and warehouse construction
      • Latest trends
      • Major projects
      • Forecasts for 2015-2021
    • Retail and service construction
      • Latest trends
      • Major projects
      • Forecasts for 2015-2021
    • Office construction
      • Latest trends
      • Major projects
      • Forecasts for 2015-2021
    • Hotel construction
      • Latest trends
      • Major projects
      • Forecasts for 2015-2021
    • Public building construction
      • Latest trends
      • Major projects
      • Forecasts for 2015-2021
    • Development forecast for non-residential construction in 2015-2021
  • Residential construction
    • Latest trends
    • Housing stock
    • Buildings and flats delivered for use
    • Building permits and housing starts
    • Major projects
    • State-funded housing schemes
      • Recommendations for banks
      • Changes to the Flat for Young People scheme
      • Social housing assistance scheme
      • Fund for homes for rental
      • Support for social housing for rent
    • Housing prices
    • Home loans
    • Plans of individual investors
    • Development forecast for non-residential construction in 2015-2021
  • Competitive environment
    • Market competition
    • Mergers and acquisitions
    • Financial standing of companies
    • Major contractors
    • Major manufacturers of building materials
  • 200 construction projects planned in Poland

Graphs

  • Forecast for changes in construction and assembly output in Poland, by type of construction (%), 2013-2021
  • Backlogs of major construction contractors in Poland (PLN m), July 2015
  • Value (PLN bn) and growth (%, y-o-y) of the construction market in Poland, 2008-2015
  • Real change in construction and assembly output in Poland (%, y-o-y), January 2013-July 2015
  • Structure of construction and assembly output in Poland, by segment (%), 2008-2015
  • Employment in the construction industry in Poland (‘000) and change (%, y-o-y), 2008-2015
  • Projected employment of construction companies in Poland, by company size, 2008-2015
  • Average gross monthly salary in the construction sector in Poland (PLN) and change (%, y-o-y), 2008-2015
  • Change in construction output prices in Poland (%, r/r), 2008-2015
  • Net sales margin in industry and construction in Poland (%), 2008-2015
  • Cost-to-revenue ratio in industry and construction in Poland (%), 2008-2015
  • Business confidence index in construction in Poland, January 2013-August 2015
  • Change in cement production and consumption in Poland (%), 2007-2015
  • Value (PLN bn) and growth (%) of total construction and assembly output in Poland, 2010-2021
  • Assessment of the current situation in the Polish construction industry (%), Q3 2015
  • Year-on-year assessment of the current situation in the Polish construction industry in 2014 (%), Q3 2015
  • Assessment of the future situation in the Polish construction industry (%), Q3 2015
  • PMR Construction Confidence Index, July 2004-September 2015
  • Assessment of the positive effect of the Polish amended Public Procurement Law of autumn 2014 (%), Q3 2015
  • Problems with collecting payments from the investor in respect of costs incurred on additional work in Poland (%), delays to subcontractors, Q3 2015
  • Problems with collecting payments from the investor in respect of costs incurred on additional work in Poland (%), delays from contracting authorities, Q3 2015
  • Delays in payments in construction companies in Poland as assessed by respondents (%), delays on the part of surveyed company, Q3 2015
  • Delays in payments in construction companies in Poland as assessed by respondents (%), delays with respect to the surveyed company, Q3 2015
  • Factors that facilitate doing business in the construction sector in Poland (%), Q3 2013-Q3 2015
  • Effect of upcoming investment projects funded from the EU 2015-2020 financial framework on the construction industry in Poland (%), Q3 2013-Q3 2015
  • Measures taken or planned by respondents’ companies to address the crisis in the construction sector in Poland (%), Q3 2015
  • Head count reductions as a means to combat the crisis in the construction sector in Poland (%), March 2010-September 2015
  • Projection for the level of investments in Poland in the next 12 months (%), Q3 2015
  • Major brands of construction machinery identified by respondents as dominant in their plant and equipment mix in Poland (%), Q3 2015
  • Proportion of companies involved in projects co-financed by the European Union in Poland (%), August 2005-September 2015
  • Proportion of companies involved in railway construction projects co-financed by the European Union in Poland (%), Q3 2015
  • Main reasons why companies are not interested in railway construction projects in Poland (%), Q3 2015
  • Proportion of companies involved in power/electricity construction projects co-financed by the European Union in Poland (%), Q3 2015
  • Delays in signing contracts for construction projects financed under the EU financial framework in Poland (%), Q3 2015
  • Effect of change of the ruling party, if any, on the situation in the Polish construction industry (%), Q3 2015
  • Countries of origin of competitors that respondents in Poland are most concerned about (%), Q3 2015
  • Assessment of how long the practice of competing by pricing bids below the investor’s cost estimates will continue in Poland (%), Q3 2013-Q3 2015
  • Principal construction segments of the surveyed construction companies in Poland (%), Q3 2015
  • Net revenue reported by construction companies in Poland in 2014, (%), Q3 2015
  • Net profit (loss) reported by the surveyed companies in Poland in 2014 (%), Q3 2014-Q3 2015
  • Projected financial result which the construction company in Poland will achieve as at the end of 2015 (%), Q3 2014-Q3 2015
  • Plans of the surveyed companies to hire staff under employment contracts in the next 12 months in Poland (%), Q3 2015
  • Proportion of work subcontracted in Poland (%), Q3 2015
  • Performance of loss-incurring contracts by construction companies in Poland (%), Q3 2015
  • Measures taken with regard to general contracting to execute contracts priced below the investor’s cost estimate in Poland (%), Q3 2015
  • Value structure of construction companies’ backlogs, public projects vs private projects in Poland (%), 2014-2016
  • Share of civil engineering works in construction and assembly output in Poland (%), 2005-2015
  • Civil engineering construction and assembly output in Poland, distribution pipelines and cables (PLN bn) and output change (%, y-o-y), 2010-2021
  • GDKIA capital spending in Poland (PLN bn) and change (%, y-o-y), 2007-2015
  • Decisions permitting roadwork projects in Poland, number of structures, 2010-H1 2015
  • High-speed roads under construction in Poland (km), at year-end, 2005-2020
  • Construction and assembly output, roads and motorways in Poland (PLN bn) and change (%, y-o-y), 2010-2021
  • Construction and assembly output, bridges, viaducts and flyovers, tunnels, subways and pedestrian bridges in Poland (PLN bn) and change (%, y-o-y), 2010-2021
  • Construction and assembly output, railways in Poland (PLN bn) and change (%, y-o-y), 2010-2021
  • Number of building permits issued and hydraulic structures completed in Poland, 2006-H1 2015
  • Hydraulic-engineering projects included in the Master Plans for the Vistula and Odra basins, by project status, 2015
  • Capital spending on hydraulic-engineering projects in Poland, by voivodship (PLN m), 2015-2021
  • Construction and assembly output, hydraulic structures in Poland (PLN bn) and change (%, y-o-y), 2010-2021
  • Power capacity retirements and capacity additions planned in Poland (MW), 2014-2028
  • PSE capital expenditure in Poland (PLN m) and change (%), 2009-2018
  • Distribution operators’ capital spending on electricity networks in Poland (PLN m) and change (%), 2009-2019
  • Diameter and length (km) of the planned gas pipelines in Poland, 2018 vs. 2023
  • Construction and assembly output, complex constructions on industrial sites in Poland (PLN bn) and change (%, y-o-y), 2010-2021
  • Construction and assembly output, long-distance pipelines, communication and electricity lines in Poland (PLN bn) and change (%, y-o-y), 2010-2021
  • Civil engineering construction and assembly output in Poland (PLN bn) and change (%, y-o-y), 2010-2021
  • Share of non-residential construction works in construction and assembly output in Poland (%), 2007-2015
  • Building permits and projects completed in Poland – non-residential construction, by number of buildings (‘000), 2005-H1 2015
  • Building permits and projects completed in Poland – non-residential construction, by floor area of buildings (million m²), 2005-H1 2015
  • Building permits and projects completed in Poland – industrial and warehouse construction, by number of buildings, 2005-H1 2015
  • Building permits and projects completed in Poland – industrial and warehouse construction, by floor area of buildings (‘000 m²), 2005-H1 2015
  • Construction and assembly output, industrial and warehouse buildings in Poland (PLN bn) and change (%, y-o-y), 2010-2021
  • Building permits and projects completed in Poland – retail and service construction, by number of buildings, 2005-H1 2015
  • Building permits and projects completed in Poland – industrial and warehouse construction, by floor area of buildings (‘000 m²), 2005-H1 2015
  • Growth in the number of hypermarkets in Poland, 2001-H1 2015
  • Construction and assembly output, retail and service buildings in Poland (PLN bn) and change (%, y-o-y), 2010-2021
  • Building permits and projects completed in Poland – office construction, by number of buildings, 2005-H1 2015
  • Building permits and projects completed in Poland – office construction, by floor area of buildings (‘000 m²), 2005-H1 2015
  • Construction and assembly output, office buildings in Poland (PLN bn) and change (%, y-o-y), 2010-2021
  • Building permits and projects completed in Poland – hotels and tourist accommodation buildings, by number of buildings, 2005-H1 2015
  • Building permits and projects completed in Poland – hotels and tourist accommodation buildings, by floor space of buildings (‘000 m²), 2005-H1 2015
  • Construction and assembly output in Poland, hotels and tourist accommodation buildings (PLN bn) and change (%, y-o-y), 2010-2021
  • Building permits and projects completed in Poland – public buildings, by number of buildings, 2005-H1 2015
  • Building permits and projects completed in Poland – public buildings, by floor area of buildings (‘000 m²), 2005-H1 2015
  • Construction and assembly output, public buildings in Poland (PLN bn) and change (%, y-o-y ), 2010-2021
  • Construction and assembly output in non-residential construction in Poland (PLN bn) and change (%), 2010-2021
  • Share of residential construction works in construction and assembly output in Poland (%), 2007-2015
  • Residential construction and assembly output in Poland, by type of building (%), 2010-2015
  • Housing stock in Poland (million), 2005-2015
  • Housing starts and homes for which building permits were issued in Poland (‘000), 2007-2015
  • Housing starts and homes for which building permits were issued in individual construction in Poland (‘000), 2007-2015
  • Housing starts and homes for which building permits were issued in the developer construction sector in Poland (‘000), 2007-2015
  • Average annual asking prices and selling prices of new housing projects conducted by developers in the six largest Polish cities (PLN/m²), 2008-2014
  • Prices of materials used in the construction of a typical detached house in Poland (PLN) and price change (%, y-o-y), 2004-2015
  • Number (‘000) and value (PLN bn) of new mortgage loans in Poland, 2005-2015
  • Balance of investors intending to renovate a house or flat in the next 12 years in Poland, Q1 2008-Q3 2015
  • Balance of investors intending to buy or build a house in the next 12 months in Poland, Q1 2008-Q3 2015
  • Construction and assembly output in residential construction in Poland (PLN bn) and change (%), 2010-2021
  • Housing completions in Poland (‘000) and change (%, y-o-y), 2010-2021
  • Net financial result of construction companies in Poland (PLN bn), 2007-2015
  • Number of bankruptcies in the Polish construction industry, 2008-2015
  • Backlogs of major construction contractors in Poland (PLN m), July 2015
  • Current and future backlogs of orders, as rated by construction companies in Poland, 2008-2015

Tables

  • Utilisation of production capacity by construction companies in Poland, by company size (%), 2008-2015
  • Main indicators illustrating the condition of the Polish construction industry, 2009-2015
  • Construction and assembly output in Poland, by type of building, 2011-2014
  • Change in prices of construction and assembly output in Poland (%, y-o-y), by type of construction, 2008-2015
  • Change in prices of construction and assembly output in Poland (%, y-o-y), by type of structure, 2012-2015
  • Projections for key macroeconomic indicators in Poland, 2011-2020
  • Raw average values for questions constituting PMR Construction Confidence Index and its percentage change, Q3 2014-Q3 2015
  • Value of PMR Construction Confidence Index, by construction market segment in Poland, Q3 2014-Q3 2015
  • Most promising segments of the construction market in Poland in the next two years (%), Q3 2013-Q3 2015
  • Obstacles to doing business in the construction sector in Poland (%), Q3 2013- Q3 2015
  • Index of key changes to the Public Procurement Law in Poland, Q3 2013-Q3 2015
  • Problems with collecting payments from the investor in respect of costs incurred on additional work in Poland (%), Q3 2013-Q3 2015
  • Average outstanding amounts for additional work in Poland (%), Q3 2013-Q3 2015
  • Projection for prices of building materials in Poland in 2015 (%), Q3 2013-Q3 2015
  • Measures taken or planned by respondents’ companies to achieve a competitive advantage in the construction market in Poland (%), Q3 2013-Q3 2015
  • Plans of respondents’ companies to raise or reduce prices of their services in Poland (%), Q3 2013-Q3 2015
  • Average contract margins in construction in Poland in 2014 (%), 2014-2016
  • Country of origin of the strategic investor in construction companies in Poland (%), Q3 2015
  • Key criteria used in subcontractor selection in Poland (%), Q3 2013-Q3 2015
  • Average loss incurred on unprofitable contracts by construction companies in Poland (%), Q3 2013-Q3 2015
  • Assessment of current financial standing of the construction company in Poland (%), Q3 2013-Q3 2015
  • Assessment of current financial standing of the construction company in Poland relative to a year ago (%), Q3 2013-Q3 2015
  • Assessment of the construction company’s financial standing in Poland as at the end of 2015 relative to the end of 2014 (%), Q3 2013-Q3 2015
  • Evaluation of current number of orders held by construction companies in Poland (%), Q3 2013-Q3 2015
  • Change in number of orders of construction companies in Poland with respect to the same period of 2014 (%), Q3 2013-Q3 2015
  • Change in number of orders of construction companies in Poland in the next 12 months (%), Q3 2013-Q3 2015
  • Structure of civil engineering construction and assembly output in Poland (%), by type of building, 2010-2015
  • Environmental protection construction, according to the Polish Classification of Types of Construction
  • Major environmental protection projects in Poland, 2015
  • Road construction according to the Polish Classification of Types of Construction
  • Total spending on national roads within the framework of the National Road Construction Programme in Poland (PLN bn), 2014-2023
  • Major road construction projects in Poland, 2015-2020
  • Railway construction according to the Polish Classification of Types of Construction
  • PKP PLK spending on modernisation and renovation of rail tracks in Poland (PLN bn), 2010-2015
  • Schedule of tenders for new railway projects in Poland, 2015-2019
  • Major railway construction projects in Poland, 2015-2020
  • Major investments in railway station buildings in Poland, 2015-2020
  • Hydro technical construction, according to the Polish Classification of Types of Construction
  • Major hydrotechnical projects in Poland, 2015-2021
  • Long-distance pipelines, communication and electricity lines, according to the Polish Classification of Types of Construction
  • Complex constructions on industrial sites, according to the Polish Classification of Types of Construction (PKOB)
  • Major power projects in Poland, 2015-2020
  • Structure of PSE capital expenditure in Poland (PLN m), 2013-2014
  • Gas interconnection projects in the analysis phase, 2015
  • Main gas investment projects in Poland, 2015-2022
  • Non-residential construction and assembly output in Poland, by type of building (%), 2010-2015
  • Construction of industrial and warehouse buildings, according to the Polish Classification of Types of Construction
  • Investment projects in special economic zones in Poland, 2006-2014
  • Major industrial and warehouse projects in Poland, 2016-2020
  • Construction of retail and services buildings, according to the Polish Classification of Types of Construction
  • Major retail and service projects in Poland, 2016-2024
  • Number of hypermarkets in Poland, 2011-H1 2015
  • Foreign supermarket chains in Poland, 2011-H1 2015
  • Number of discount stores in Poland, 2011-H1 2015
  • Construction of office buildings, according to the Polish Classification of Types of Construction
  • Major office projects in Poland, 2016-2024
  • Construction of hotels, according to the Polish Classification of Types of Construction
  • Most popular foreign hotel chains operating on the Polish hotel market, 2014
  • Largest domestic hotel chains in Poland, 2014
  • Major hotel projects in Poland, 2016-2019
  • Construction of public buildings, according to the Polish Classification of Types of Construction
  • Major public construction projects in Poland, 2016-2021
  • Residential construction, according to the Polish Classification of Types of Construction
  • Housing completions in Poland, by type of building, 2008-H1 2015
  • Average floor area of homes completed in Poland (m²), 2008-H1 2015
  • Change in the number of housing completions in Poland (%, y-o-y), 2008-H1 2015
  • Homes for which building permits were issued in Poland, 2012-H1 2015
  • Housing starts in Poland, 2012-H1 2015
  • Major housing projects in Poland, 2016-2019
  • Number of flats sold by leading developers in Poland, 2013-H1 2015
  • Major acquisitions on the building materials market in Poland, 2011-2015
  • Major acquisitions on the construction market in Poland, 2011-2015
  • Major bankruptcies in the construction industry in Poland, 2012-2015
  • Key financial data for top 20 construction contractors operating in Poland (PLN m), 2011-2014