Construction sector in Poland, H1 2012

Development forecasts for 2012-2014

The report presents the currently expected trends for both the construction market as a whole and its individual market segments, i.e. residential construction, non-residential construction and civil engineering. It also offers prospects for the development of the industry during the next three years, i.e. until 2014. The document also features analysis of the competitive environment within the Polish construction market, in terms of both the contractor market and producers of construction materials.

New in this edition:

  • Database of the 100 largest planned construction investments serves as a convenient comparative tool for examining the planned investments analysed within the report
  • Database of the 100 top construction companies in Poland
  • Complete chapter on the competitive environment, offering a dynamic overview of corporate descriptions, trends, strategies and successes
  • Table of information comparing and contrasting the country’s top 20 contractors
  • Table comparing the leading manufacturers of construction materials in 9 major product groups.

 

Key components

  • An analysis of the construction market as a whole, along with presentation and interpretation of trends in the areas of wages, employment rate, prices, financial condition of companies, and the number of construction firms
  • A detailed analysis of the factors impacting the prospects for the construction market in Poland (macroeconomic factors, foreign investments, investments of domestic businesses, cement production, EU subsidies etc.)
  • An analysis of the condition of civil engineering and its individual segments; forecasts until 2014
  • An analysis of the condition of non-residential construction and its individual segments; forecasts until 2014
  • An analysis of the condition of residential construction and its individual segments; forecasts until 2014
  • An analysis of the competitive environment of the Polish construction market.

 

This report answers questions such as

  • What is the current and projected value of the Polish construction market and its segments?
  • Which new construction permits and investments are in the forecasts for residential construction?
  • How many apartments will be completed from 2012-2014?
  • What will happen in terms of prices on the Polish construction market in the coming years?
  • How many kilometres of motorways and expressways are currently under construction, and how many will be completed by 2014?
  • How has the number of construction companies in Poland changed over the last six months?
  • Which key legal changes have impacted the Polish construction market in recent months?
  • What are the current trends in each sub-segment of non-residential construction?
  • Which contractors are most successful in obtaining and completing contracts in Poland?
  • Which companies are market leaders on the Polish market of construction materials?

 

The report is an excellent source of business information, offering

  • Access to publicly unavailable data ordered from GUS (permits, construction production by voivodship)
  • Updates on industry forecasts to 2014
  • Complete, dynamic analysis of the competitive environment
  • Tabular comparison of the largest planned investments in each key construction segment.

 

Companies mentioned in this report

Budimex, Polimex-Mostostal, Strabag, PBG, Skanska, Mostostal Warszawa, Trakcja-Tiltra Polska, Alstom Power Construction Sp. z o.o., Hydrobudowa, Erbud, Warbud, Rafako, Mostostal Zabrze, Elektrobudowa, Unibud BEP, Hochtief Polska, Pol-Aqua, Bilfinger Berger Budownictwo, Eurovia Polska, J&P AVAX, Górażdże Cement S.A., Cemex Polska Sp. z o.o., Lafarge Cement S.A., Lotos Asfalt sp. z o.o., Orlen Asfalt Sp. z o.o., Polski Asfalt Sp. z o. o., Arcelor Mittal, Celsa Huta Ostrowiec Sp. z o.o., CMC Zawiercie S.A., Rockwool Polska Sp. z o.o., Isover Saint-Gobain Construction Products Polska Sp. z o.o., URSA Polska Sp. z o.o., Ruukki Polska Sp. z o.o., Pruszyński sp. z o.o., Roeben, Ceramika Budowlana Sp. z o.o., Icopal SA, Atlas, Selena, Mapei, GK Rovese, Opoczno I Sp. z o.o., Ceramika Paradyż Sp. z o.o., Wienerberger Sp. Z o.o., Röben Polska Sp. z o.o. i Wspólnicy Sp.K., Xella Polska Sp. z o.o., Termoorganika, Swisspor, Yetico S.A.

 

The report is addressed to

Managers, executives, and marketing departments of the following:

  • Companies that produce and distribute construction materials
  • Producers and distributors of construction machines
  • Contractors active, or seeking to develop their business in Poland
  • Foreign construction companies investing or planning to invest in Poland
  • Firms engaged in the design and management of construction investments
  • Companies dedicated to consulting, research and analyis
  • Government institutions, embassies, universities, research institutes
  • Chambers of commerce, industry organisations, media houses, PR agencies
  • Financial institutions (banks, brokerage houses, investment funds).

 

The report is especially useful when

  • Setting up activity on the construction market in Poland
  • Entering a new segment of the construction market
  • Completing an M&A transaction within the construction market
  • Planning company strategy for the near future or the long term
  • Analysing investment opportunities in the construction market in Poland
  • Monitoring activities of the competition on the construction market
  • Estimating own share in the construction market
  • Forecasting the demand for construction materials applied in industrial construction
  • Preparing accurate analyses for your company management or shareholders.

 

Extract from this report

  • We estimate that in the entire 2011 the construction market increased nominally by approximately 13%, and its value reached PLN 188bn.
  • In 2012 Polish engineering construction is going to keep expanding, driven by large infrastructure projects contracted earlier.
  • Road investments halted in 2011 are going to significantly weaken the dynamic of the engineering segment in 2013-2014. 

 

Market commentary by expert

After an increase of around fifteen per cent in 2011, the start of 2012 saw further high growths in the construction output in Poland. Although the next months are expected to bring slight slowdown in the market growth, the entire 2012 should achieve a one-digit growth in the construction market.

Bartłomiej Sosna, Head Construction market Analyst

 

PMR reports are a serious contribution to the market overview picture, focusing our attention on key events in the industry as well as highlighting both general and specific market indicators. Together, these components are the base for our future forecasts of construction market development and help us to plan our sales. Market Analyst, Alpha Cement
PMR's analysts understand our needs well and the standard of their service has always fully met our expectations. We are looking forward to cooperating with PMR in the future as well. Senior Trade and Investment Adviser, British Embassy in Warsaw
We use PMR's services due to their analysts' extensive experience in market analysis, their high quality and level of engagement in the market research carried out for us. We consider PMR a competent and professional company and recommend them as a reliable partner in the area of economic information and market analysis. Senior Trade and Investment Adviser, British Embassy in Warsaw
PMR provides a good service and is always open to discussion. All reports are well structured & are always on time. Member of the Managment Board, SCA Hygiene Products
We would like to highlight the work of specialists who are ready to provide a full range of services for the analysis of the market situation in the selected country. If you want to get the real market research, the PMR agency is one of the best providers which can help you. Marketing Manager, URSA Eurasia LLC - URALITA
As a London-based company, with operations abroad, we looked for the best-in-class Market Intelligence supplier. PMR brought us quality reports that improved our CEE market knowledge and understanding. Development Manager, GVA Grimley
We have been using the services provided by PMR since 2008 during which time they have provided my business with comprehensive support in the area of industrial market data and analysis. The news and reports provided by PMR always contain reliable information on the markets in which we are interested helping us to evaluate our position, qualify commercial opportunities and develop strategies per market sector in which we are working. Managing Director, Maccaferri Gabions CIS
We have been cooperating with PMR for almost four years. We regularly receive PMR's newsletters concerning the Russian construction market. The reports are always prepared professionally and on time. They are also very useful, interesting, well-structured and contain up-to-date information. Business Analyst, Hilti Distribution, Russia
It's a great pleasure to cooperate with PMR because of its analysts' wealth of experience in understanding the local market. We consider PMR a competent and professional company which helps us conduct our business. I would also like to state that PMR's team is always ready to respond to emerging customer needs. We can recommend it as a reliable partner. Business Analyst, Hilti Distribution, Russia
We find PMR staff - both market analysts and sales specialists - highly professional, helpful and open to our suggestions. We really appreciate having a business partner like PMR. Managing Director, Schueco International Poland
I am happy to recommend PMR team as a solid and reliable supplier of specific market data and experts in their field. Managing Director, Maccaferri Gabions CIS
Schueco International Poland wishes to recommend PMR Publications, as a trustworthy market information provider. PMR's prognoses concerning the construction sector are particularly worth recommending, as they are reliable and well prepared. Using them helps our company successfully plan further development. Managing Director, Schueco International Poland

  1. Methodology p. 9

  2. Executive summary p. 13

  3. Macroeconomic overview p. 17

    • Gross domestic product p. 17
    • Gross value added in construction p. 18
    • Gross fixed capital formation p. 19
    • Fiscal policies p. 20
    • Foreign direct investments p. 21
    • Inflation p. 22
    • Labour market and private consumption p. 23
    • Macroeconomic forecasts p. 24
  4. Construction overview p. 27

    • Construction market value p. 27
    • Construction and assembly output p. 29
    • Construction companies – number and type p. 32
    • Employment and wages in construction p. 34
    • Construction prices and financial standing of construction companies p. 35
    • Business confidence in construction p. 37
    • Cement production p. 38
    • Legal changes relevant to the construction market p. 38
      • The Act on National Roads Serviceability p. 38
      • The Developers Act p. 39
      • The Reverse Mortgage Act p. 42
      • Expected changes in road tender processes p. 42
      • New Building Code p. 43
    • Development forecast for construction and assembly output in 2012-2014 p. 43
  5. Civil engineering construction p. 47

    • Situation in the civil engineering construction market p. 47
    • Environmental protection-related projects p. 50
    • Road transport p. 53
    • Railway transport p. 58
    • Air transport p. 61
    • Gross fixed capital formation in the heavy industry p. 62
      • Gross fixed capital formation in the power sector p. 62
      • Gross fixed capital formation in the refining and chemical sectors p. 64
    • Development forecast for civil engineering construction in 2012-2014 p. 67
  6. Non-residential construction p. 69

    • Situation in the non-residential construction market p. 69
    • Industrial and warehouse construction p. 72
    • Retail and service construction p. 75
    • Office construction p. 80
    • Hotel construction p. 83
    • Development forecast for non-residential construction in 2012-2014 p. 86
  7. Residential construction p. 89

    • Housing stock p. 92
    • Building and dwelling completions p. 92
      • Individual investors p. 94
      • Developers p. 95
      • Housing cooperatives p. 98
    • Building permits and housing starts p. 99
    • State-funded housing schemes p. 101
    • Housing prices p. 102
    • Mortgage loans p. 102
    • Plans of individual investors p. 104
    • Development forecast for residential construction in 2012-2014 p. 105
  8. Competitive environment p. 107

    • Market competition p. 107
    • Mergers and acquisitions p. 109
    • Financial standing of construction companies p. 111
    • Main contractors p. 112
    • Leading manufacturers of building materials p. 116
  9. List of graphs p. 119

  10. List of tables p. 123

  11. About PMR p. 125

  12. Contact PMR p. 126

List of graphs

  1. Projected growth of construction and assembly output in Poland (%), by type of construction, 2011-2014       14
  2. GDP at real prices (PLN bn) and real GDP change (% y-o-y), 2006-2014       18
  3. Share and growth of gross value added in construction in Poland (%), 2006-2011       18
  4. GDP real growth rate and change in gross fixed capital formation in Poland (%), 2006-2014       19
  5. Debt and general government deficit in Poland (% of GDP), 2006-2010      20
  6. Foreign direct investments in Poland (€ m), 2006-2011      21
  7. Average annual inflation rate for Poland (%), 2006-2014       22
  8. Growth in the average real monthly wage, private consumption and unemployment rate in Poland (%), 2006-2014      23
  9. Value (PLN bn) and change (%) of the construction market in Poland, 2005-2011       28
  10. Real change in construction and assembly output in Poland (%, y-o-y), January 2010-February 2012       29
  11. Structure of construction and assembly output in Poland (%), by segment, 2006-2011       30
  12. Structure of construction output in Poland, by region, 2010      31
  13. Employment (‘000) and employment change (%) in construction in Poland, 2007-2011       34
  14. Average gross monthly wage in construction (PLN) and wage change (%) in Poland, 2006-2011       35
  15. Construction price changes in Poland (%, y-o-y), 2006-2011        36
  16. Net sales margin in industry and construction in Poland (%), 2005-2011       36
  17. Cost-to-revenue ratio in industry and construction in Poland (% of revenue), 2005-2011       37
  18. Business confidence in construction in Poland, January 2010-February 2012       37
  19. Change in cement production and consumption in Poland (%), 2006-2011       38
  20. Value (PLN bn) and change (%) of total construction and assembly output in Poland, 2007-2014       44
  21. Contribution of civil engineering works to total construction and assembly output in Poland (%), 2005-2011       47
  22. Structure of civil engineering construction and assembly output in Poland, by type of building (%), 2010       48
  23. Structure of civil engineering construction and assembly output in Poland, by type of building (%), 2011       49
  24. Civil engineering construction and assembly output in Poland (PLN bn) and output change (%, y-o-y), 2005-2011      49
  25. Civil engineering construction and assembly output in Poland, distribution pipelines and cables (PLN bn) and output change (%, y-o-y), 2005-2011       50
  26. Implementation of the National Programme for Municipal Wastewater Treatment in Poland, 2008-2010        51
  27. Construction and assembly output for roads and motorways in Poland (PLN bn) and output change (%, y-o-y), 2005-2011      53
  28. Construction and assembly output for bridges, viaducts and flyovers, tunnels, subways and pedestrian bridges in Poland (PLN bn) and output change (%, y-o-y), 2005-2011      53
  29. Motorways and expressways under construction in Poland (km), at year-end, 2005-2011      54
  30. Motorways and expressways in use in Poland (km), 2005-2014      55
  31. Plan for motorways and expressways in Poland, 2012-2014      56
  32. Construction and assembly output for railways in Poland (PLN m) and output change (%, y-o-y), 2005-2011       58
  33. Modernisation of railway tracks in Poland up to 2015      59
  34. Civil engineering construction and assembly output in Poland (PLN bn) and change (%), 2007-2014      67
  35. Non-residential construction and assembly output in Poland (PLN bn) and output change (%, y-o-y), 2005-2011      69
  36. Non-residential construction and assembly output in Poland, by type of building, 2010      70
  37. Non-residential construction and assembly output in Poland, by type of building, 2011      70
  38. Building permits and projects completed in Poland – non-residential construction, the number of buildings (‘000), 2005-2011      71
  39. Building permits and projects completed in Poland – non-residential construction, the floor area of buildings (million m2), 2005-2011      71
  40. Construction and assembly output for industrial and warehouse buildings in Poland (PLN bn) and output change (%, y-o-y), 2005-2011      72
  41. Building permits and projects completed in Poland – industrial and warehouse construction, the number of buildings, 2005-2011      72
  42. Building permits and projects completed in Poland – industrial and warehouse construction, the floor area of buildings (‘000 m2), 2005-2011      73
  43. Construction and assembly output for retail and service buildings in Poland (PLN bn) and output change (%, y-o-y), 2005-2011      75
  44. Building permits and projects completed in Poland – retail and service buildings, the number of buildings, 2005-2011      76
  45. Building permits and projects completed in Poland – retail and service buildings, the floor area of buildings (‘000 m2), 2005-2011      76
  46. Supply of modern retail space in Poland (m2), 2006-2011      77
  47. Number of hypermarkets in Poland, 2001-2011      78
  48. Construction and assembly output for office buildings in Poland (PLN bn) and output change (%, y-o-y), 2005-2011      80
  49. Building permits and projects completed in Poland – office buildings, the number of buildings, 2005-2011      80
  50. Building permits and projects completed in Poland – office buildings, the floor area of buildings (‘000 m2), 2005-2011      81
  51. Existing and planned supply of office space in regional cities in Poland (m2), 2012      82
  52. Construction and assembly output for hotels and tourist accommodation buildings in Poland (PLN bn) and output change (%, y-o-y), 2005-2011      83
  53. Building permits and projects completed in Poland – hotels and tourist accommodation buildings, the number of buildings, 2005-2011      84
  54. Building permits and projects completed in Poland – hotels and tourist accommodation buildings, the floor area of buildings (‘000 m2), 2005-2011      84
  55. Polish hotel stock, 2011      85
  56. Non-residential construction and assembly output in Poland (PLN bn) and change (%), 2007-2014      87
  57. Share of residential construction in construction and assembly output in Poland, 2005-2011      89
  58. Residential construction and assembly output in Poland (PLN bn) and output change (%, y-o-y), 2005-2011      90
  59. Residential construction and assembly output in Poland, by type of building, 2010      91
  60. Residential construction and assembly output in Poland, by type of building, 2011      91
  61. Growth in the housing market in Poland in January-February 2012 vs the corresponding period of 2011      93
  62. Housing starts and homes for which building permits were issued in individual construction in Poland (‘000), 2005-2011      94
  63. Prices of materials used in the construction of a typical single-family house in Poland (PLN), May 2004-January 2012      95
  64. Developer-built homes marketed, sold and on offer in Poland, 2007-2010      96
  65. Housing starts and homes for which building permits were issued in the developer sector in Poland (‘000), 2005-2011      97
  66. Growth in the market of developer-built housing in Poland in January-February 2012 vs the corresponding period of 2011      97
  67. Housing starts and homes for which building permits were issued in Poland (‘000), 2005-2011      100
  68. Number (‘000) and value (PLN bn) of new mortgage loans in Poland, 2005-2012      103
  69. Investors intending to renovate house or flat in the next 12 months in Poland, Q1 2007-Q4 2011      104
  70. Investors intending to buy or build house in the next 12 months in Poland, Q1 2007-Q4 2011      104
  71. Residential construction and assembly output in Poland (PLN bn) and output change (%), 2007-2014      105
  72. Housing completions in Poland (‘000) and change (%, y-o-y), 2007-2014      106
  73. Growth in revenue and profit posted by construction firms in Poland (%), 2002-2011      111
     

List of tables

  1. Projections for the main economic indicators in Poland for 2011-2014      25
  2. Main indicators illustrating the condition of the Polish construction industry, 2007-2011       28
  3. Construction and assembly output in Poland, by type of building, 2008-2011      32
  4. Number of construction firms in Poland, 2005-2011      33
  5. Financial results of construction companies operating in Poland (PLN m), 2007-2011      33
  6. SWOT analysis of the Act on the Protection of the Rights of Buyers of Residential Dwellings or Single-Family Houses      40-41
  7. Major environmental protection projects planned in Poland, 2012-2015      52
  8. Major road construction projects planned in Poland, 2012-2020      57
  9. Major railway construction projects planned in Poland, 2012-2015      60
  10. Major airport construction projects planned in Poland, 2012-2014      62
  11. Major power projects in Poland, 2012-2017      63
  12. Major industrial and warehouse projects planned in Poland, 2012-2017      74
  13. Number of hypermarkets in Poland, 2009-2011      78
  14. Foreign supermarket chains in Poland, 2009-2011      78
  15. Discount store chains in Poland, 2009-2011      79
  16. Major retail and service projects planned in Poland, 2012-2015      79
  17. Major office projects planned in Poland, 2012-2022      83
  18. Major hotel projects in Poland, 2012-2013      86
  19. Housing stock in Poland (million units), 2011      92
  20. Average floor area of homes completed in Poland (m2), 2005-2011      92
  21. Housing completions in Poland, by type of building, 2005-2011      93
  22. Major housing projects in Poland, 2012-2014      98
  23. Change in housing completions in Poland (%, y-o-y), 2005-2011      99
  24. Homes for which building permits were issued in Poland, 2009-2011      100
  25. Housing starts in Poland, 2009-2011      100
  26. Financials for the top 20 construction firms operating in Poland (PLN m), 2008-2011      115
  27. Leading manufacturers of building materials in Poland, by type of material, 2008-2010      117