Construction sector in Poland, H1 2011

The report presents the current and forecasted trends, both on the construction market as a whole, and its individual segments, i.e. housing construction, non-housing construction and in engineering construction. An essential part of the report are the profiles of top ten construction companies in Poland, with an analysis of their current situation and strategies for the coming years. Another important section is the analysis based on a survey carried out among 200 largest construction firms in Poland. The chapter presents aggregate assessment of construction firms – both in terms of the entire market and the situation in the construction firms.

Key issues:

• analysis of the construction market as a whole and interpreting the trends in the area of salaries, employment level, prices, financial condition of companies and the number of construction firms
• thorough analysis of factors impacting the shape of forecasts for the construction market in Poland: macroeconomic indexes, foreign investments, investments of Polish companies, cement production, EU subsidies etc.
• findings of the survey carried out among top 200 construction firms in Poland, concerning both the situation of the firms and the assessment of trends on the construction market
• analysis of the situation in engineering construction and its individual segments, as well as forecasts until 2013
• analysis of the situation in non-housing construction and its individual segments, as well as forecasts until 2013
• analysis of the situation in housing construction and its individual segments, as well as forecasts until 2013
• analysis of the top ten firms on the Polish construction market, the financial results for the first half of 2010, forecasts for financial results, recent trends in market strategies, and new contracts obtained by firms.

 Questions the report answers

• What is the current and future value of the Polish construction market and its segments?
• What are the forecasts for housing construction in the area of construction permits and commenced constructions ?
• How many apartments will be completed in 2011-2013 in individual construction, and how many – in property developer construction?
• How many apartments will be completed in 2011-2013, by province?
• What will the structure of prices on the Polish construction market be in the coming years?
• How many kilometres of motorways and express roads are currently being built, and how many will be completed by 2013?
• What are the most recent financial results of the top ten construction firms in Poland, and what new contracts have they obtained in the past six months?
• Are deficits of construction materials in road construction likely in 2011-2012?
• How has the number of construction companies in Poland changed in the last six months?
• What key legal changes affecting the market have been observed in the recent months?
• What are the current trends in the individual subsegments of non-housing construction?

The report is a unique source of information for key business decisions and provides:

• analysis of the findings obtained from a regular survey (thirteenth edition) conducted among top 200 construction companies in Poland, with a cyclical index for the condition of the construction market
• regional analysis with forecasts by provinces and construction segments
• the most recent data, ordered from the Central Statistical Office and unavailable elsewhere, concerning construction permits in housing construction for 2010
• detailed profiles of the top ten players on the market, including the newest contracts obtained over the past six months, and forecasts for financial results
• forecasts for the value of construction and assembly production until 2013, broken down into housing, non-housing and engineering construction
• forecasts for the number of completed apartments – individual and property developer construction
• analysis of the individual factors affecting the forecasts for the Polish construction market and SWOT analysis of the market.

 Who the report is for:

Executive staff, managers, marketing divisions of the following:

• producers and distributors of construction materials
• producers and distributors of construction equipment
• developers active in Poland
• foreign construction firms investing or planning to invest in Poland
• firms which plan and manage construction investments
• consultancies, research and analytical companies
• government institutions, embassies, universities, research institutes
• chambers of commerce, industry organisations, media houses, PR agencies
• financial institutions, (banks, brokerages, investment funds).

 The report will be a precious source of information when:

• starting business activity on the construction market in Poland
• entering a new segment of the construction market
• carrying out a merger or an acquisition on the construction market
• planning company strategy
• analysing the investment opportunities on the Polish construction market
• monitoring the competition on the construction market
• assessing own share of a company in the construction market
• preparing forecasts concerning the demand for construction materials
• preparing own analyses for the board or shareholders.

Market commentary by expert

After weaker growths observed in 2009-2010, the year 2011 will bring a significant recovery in the construction industry, brought on by the intense implementation of the engineering contracts signed earlier, as well as a boom in large-scale construction. However, the dwindling funds for public investments mean that long-term prospects for the Polish construction industry have to be estimated with great care. A lot depends on the scale of the expected recovery of investment activity in the segment of enterprises.

Bartłomiej Sosna, Senior construction market analyst

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1. Methodology p. 11

2. Executive summary p. 17

3. Macroeconomic overview p. 21

   • Introduction p. 21
   • Gross domestic product (GDP) p. 21
   • Gross value added in construction p. 22
   • Gross fixed capital formation p. 23
   • Capital expenditure on buildings and structures p. 23
   • Foreign direct investments p. 24
   • Inflation p. 25
   • Macroecnomic outlook p. 25

4. Construction overview p. 27

   • Construction market value p. 27
   • Construction and assembly output p. 29
   • Construction companies – their number and type p. 31
   • Employment and wages in construction p. 33
   • Construction prices and financial standing of construction companies p. 34
   • Business confidence in construction p. 36
   • Cement production p. 37
   • Legal changes relevant to the construction market p. 37
     • Changes to the mortgage law p. 37
     • Revised national road construction programme p. 38
     • Construction easier in health resorts p. 38
     • Changes to the “Family’s Own Home” scheme p. 38
     • Improved protection for mortgage borrowers p. 39
   • Development forecast for construction and assembly output in 2011-2013 p. 39

5. Results of a survey of the 200 largest Polish construction companies p. 41

   • Introduction p. 41
   • Assessment of the situation on the Polish construction market p. 42
   • Overview and market standing of the largest Polish construction companies p. 53
   • Current and planned activities of Polish construction companies on foreign markets p. 61

6. Civil engineering construction p. 65

   • Situation on the civil engineering construction market p. 65
   • Environmental protection-related projects p. 67
   • Road transport p. 70
   • Railway transport p. 75
   • Air transport p. 78
   • Heavy industry p. 80
     • Power sector p. 80
     • Refining and chemical sectors p. 81
       • PKN Orlen p. 81
       • Lotos p. 81
       • PGNiG p. 82
       • Gaz-System p. 82
   • Sports facilities p. 83
   • Development forecast for civil engineering construction in 2011-2013 p. 83

7. Non-residential construction p. 85

   • Situation on the non-residential construction market p. 85
   • Industrial and warehouse construction p. 88
   • Retail and service construction p. 91
   • Office construction p. 95
   • Hotel construction p. 98
   • Public utility construction p. 101
   • Development forecast for non-residential construction in 2011-2013 p. 104

8. Residential construction p. 105

   • Housing stock p. 107
   • Building and dwelling completions p. 108
     • Individual investors p. 108
     • Developers p. 110
     • Housing cooperatives p. 113
   • Housing starts and building permits p. 113
   • State-funded housing schemes p. 115
   • Housing prices p. 116
   • Mortgage loans p. 116
   • Development forecast for residential construction in 2011-2013 p. 118

9. Profiles of voivodships p. 121

   • Characteristics of voivodships p. 125

10. Profiles of the largest construction companies p. 129

    • Polimex-Mostostal SA p. 129
    • Budimex SA p. 131
    • Strabag Sp. z o.o. p. 132
    • Skanska SA p. 133
    • Mostostal Warszawa SA p. 135
    • PBG SA p. 137
    • Warbud SA p. 138
    • P.R.I. Pol-Aqua SA p. 140
    • Mostostal Zabrze-Holding SA p. 141
    • Erbud SA p. 143

11. List of graphs p. 145

12. List of tables p. 151

13. About PMR p. 153

14. Contact PMR p. 154

List of graphs

1. Forecasts for construction and assembly output growth in Poland, by type of construction, 2010-2013
2. GDP growth in Poland (%, y-o-y), 2000-2013
3. Real Gross Domestic Product growth in Poland (%), 2002-2010
4. Gross fixed capital formation in Poland (%, y-o-y), 2000-2013
5. Corporate capital expenditure on buildings and structures in Poland (PLN bn and y-o-y real change), 2000-2010
6. The value of foreign direct investments in Poland (€ bn), 2002-2011
7. The average annual inflation rate for Poland (%), 2000-2013
8. Value of the construction market in Poland (PLN bn and y-o-y change), 2005-2010
9. Nominal change in construction and assembly output (%, y-o-y), January 2009-February 2011
10. Structure of construction and assembly output in Poland (%), by segments, 2005-2010
11. Growth in net revenue and net profit posted by construction companies in Poland, 2002-2010
12. Employment in construction in Poland (‘000 and y-o-y change), 2007-February 2011
13. Average gross monthly wage in construction in Poland (PLN and y-o-y change), 2005-February 2011
14. Inflation rate and prices in construction and industry in Poland (%, y-o-y), January 2000-February 2011
15. Net sales margin in industry and construction in Poland (%), 2000-2010
16. Cost to revenue ratio in industry and construction in Poland (% of revenue), 2000-2010
17. Business confidence in construction in Poland, January 2008-March 2011
18. Cement production in Poland (million tonnes), 2000-2011
19. Total construction and assembly output in Poland (PLN bn and y-o-y change), 2007-2013
20. Assessment of the current situation in the Polish construction industry
21. Projection for the situation in the construction sector in the next 12 months
22. PMR Construction Confidence Indicator, July 2004-March 2011
23. The most attractive segments of construction market in the next two years
24. Obstacles to doing business on the construction market in Poland
25. Comparison of proportions of respondents indicating a given factor as impeding business in the construction industry
26. Factors facilitating doing business on the construction market in Poland
27. Is your company observing any recovery in the construction industry?
28. Measures planned or implemented in response to the crisis in the construction sector
29. Measures planned or implemented to achieve a competitive advantage
30. Does your company participate in projects co-financed by the EU?
31. Percentage of companies participating in projects co-financed by the EU, July 2004-March 2011
32. Is your company concerned about competition from foreign construction companies which offer cheap labour and lower prices?
33. Countries perceived as the largest competitive threat to construction companies in Poland
34. Key construction segment for the company
35. Revenue of the company in 2010 (approximate values)
36. Does the company plan to increase or reduce its workforce in the next 12 months?
37. Does the company plan to expand its production capacity in the next 12 months otherwise than by increasing its workforce?
38. How is the company planning to expand its production capacity in the next 12 months (otherwise than by increasing its workforce)?
39. Which criteria are applied when selecting a subcontractor?
40. Where is the company supplied with building materials?
41. Current financial standing of the company
42. Comparison of the company’s financial standing this year relative to a year ago
43. Expected standing of the company at the end of 2011 relative to the end of 2010
44. Evaluation of the size of the company’s order book
45. The company’s order book now compared to last year’s
46. The number of orders expected in the next 12 months
47. Does the company conduct projects or sell products or services abroad? (based on responses provided in 2004-2011)?
48. Activity of Polish construction companies on foreign markets
49. Does the company plan to launch business activity outside of Poland?
50. Contribution of civil engineering construction to total construction and assembly output in Poland, 2003-2010
51. Civil engineering construction and assembly output in Poland, by type of building, 2009
52. Civil engineering construction and assembly output in Poland, by type of building, 2010
53. Civil engineering construction and assembly output in Poland (PLN bn and y-o-y change), 2000-2010
54. Construction and assembly output comprising distribution pipelines and cables in Poland (PLN bn and y-o-y change), 2000-2010
55. Construction and assembly output comprising roads and motorways in Poland (PLN bn and y-o-y change), 2000-2010
56. Construction and assembly output comprising bridges, viaducts, flyovers, tunnels, subways and pedestrian bridges in Poland (PLN m and y-o-y change), 2000-2010
57. Motorways and expressways under construction in Poland (km), January 2002-January 2011
58. Motorways and expressways in use in Poland (km), January 2000-January 2013
59. Plan for construction of motorways and expressways in Poland, 2011-2013
60. Construction and assembly output comprising railways in Poland (PLN m and y-o-y change), 2000-2010
61. Modernisation of railroads in Poland before 2015
62. Construction and assembly output comprising sports facilities in Poland (PLN m and y-o-y change), 2000-2010
63. Civil engineering construction and assembly output in Poland (PLN bn and y-o-y change), 2007-2013
64. Non-residential construction and assembly output in Poland (PLN bn and y-o-y change), 2000-2010
65. Non-residential construction and assembly output in Poland, by type of building, 2009
66. Non-residential construction and assembly output in Poland, by type of building, 2010
67. Building permits and projects completed in Poland – non-residential construction, the number of buildings (‘000), 2000-2010
68. Building permits and projects completed in Poland – non-residential construction, the floor area of buildings (million m2), 2004-2010
69. Construction and assembly output comprising industrial and warehouse buildings in Poland (PLN bn and y-o-y change), 2000-2010
70. Building permits and projects completed in Poland – industrial and warehouse construction, the number of buildings, 2000-2010
71. Building permits and projects completed in Poland – industrial and warehouse buildings, the floor area of buildings (‘000 m2), 2004-2010
72. Construction and assembly output comprising retail and service buildings in Poland (PLN bn and y-o-y change), 2000-2010
73. Building permits and projects completed in Poland – retail and service buildings, the number of buildings, 2000-2010
74. Building permits and projects completed in Poland – retail and service buildings, the floor area of buildings (‘000 m2), 2005-2010
75. The supply of modern retail space in Poland (m2), 2005-2011
76. Change in the number of hypermarkets in Poland, 2001-2010
77. Construction and assembly output comprising office buildings in Poland (PLN bn and y-o-y change), 2000-2010
78. Building permits and projects completed in Poland – office buildings, the number of buildings, 2000-2010
79. Building permits and projects completed in Poland – office buildings, the floor area of buildings (‘000 m2), 2004-2010
80. Stock and future supply of office space projects in regional cities in Poland (m2), March 2011
81. Construction and assembly output comprising hotels and tourist accommodation buildings in Poland (PLN m and y-o-y change), 2000-2010
82. Building permits and projects completed in Poland – hotels and tourist accommodation buildings, the number of buildings, 2000-2010
83. Building permits and projects completed in Poland – hotels and tourist accommodation buildings, the floor area of buildings (‘000 m2), 2004-2010
84. Construction and assembly output comprising cultural, educational, sports, healthcare buildings and hospitals in Poland (PLN bn and y-o-y change), 2000-2010
85. Building permits and projects completed in Poland – cultural, educational, sports, healthcare buildings and hospitals, the number of buildings, 2000-2010
86. Building permits and projects completed in Poland – cultural, educational, sports, healthcare buildings and hospitals, the floor area of buildings (‘000 m2), 2004-2010
87. Non-residential construction and assembly output in Poland (PLN bn and nominal change), 2007-2013
88. Contribution of residential construction to total construction and assembly output in Poland, 2003-2010
89. Residential construction and assembly output in Poland (PLN bn and y-o-y change), 2000-2010
90. Residential construction and assembly output in Poland, by type of building, 2009
91. Residential construction and assembly output in Poland, by type of building, 2010
92. Housing starts and homes for which building permits were issued in individual construction in Poland (‘000), 2002-2011
93. The prices of materials used in the construction of a typical single-family house in Poland, May 2004-February 2011
94. Housing starts and homes for which building permits were issued in the developer sector in Poland (‘000), 2002-2011
95. Developer-built homes marketed, sold and offered in Poland, Q1 2007-Q4 2010
96. Housing starts and homes for which building permits were issued in Poland (‘000), 2002-2011
97. The number (‘000) and value of new mortgage loans in Poland (PLN bn), 2004-2011
98. Residential construction and assembly output in Poland (PLN bn and nominal change), 2000-2013
99. Housing completions in Poland (‘000 and y-o-y change), 2004-2013
100. Homes completed in Poland, by type of construction (‘000), 2004-2013

List of tables

1. Construction and assembly output in Poland (PLN bn), 2009-2010
2. Projections for the main economic indicators in Poland, 2011-2013
3. Main indicators illustrating the condition of the Polish construction industry, 2007-2010
4. Construction and assembly output in Poland, by type of building, 2007-2010
5. The number of construction companies in Poland, June 2002-December 2010
6. Financial results of the largest construction groups operating in Poland (PLN m), 2009-2010
7. Financial results of construction companies operating in Poland (PLN m), 2007-2010
8. Major environmental protection projects in Poland, 2011-2015
9. Major road construction projects in Poland, 2011-2020
10. Major railway projects in Poland, 2011-2020
11. Major air transport projects in Poland, 2011-2020
12. Major power sector projects in Poland, 2011-2020
13. Major industrial and warehouse space projects in Poland, 2011-2015
14. The number of hypermarkets in Poland, December 2008-December 2010
15. Foreign supermarket chains in Poland, December 2008-December 2010
16. Discount store chains in Poland, December 2008-December 2010
17. Major retail and service projects in Poland, 2011-2014
18. Major office development projects in Poland, 2011-2015
19. Major hotel projects in Poland, 2011-2014
20. Major public utility projects in Poland, 2011-2014
21. Housing stock in Poland, 2010
22. The average floor area of homes completed in Poland (m2), 2005-2010
23. Housing completions in Poland, by type, 2005-2010
24. Major housing projects in Poland, 2011-2015
25. Change in housing completions in Poland (%, y-o-y), 2005-2010
26. Homes for which building permits were issued in Poland (number and y-o-y change), 2009-2010
27. Housing starts in Poland (number and y-o-y change), 2009-2010
28. Population of Poland by voivodship, 2007-2010
29. Number of construction firms in Poland by voivodship, end of December 2010
30. Construction output sold in Poland by voivodship (PLN m and € m) 2007-2010
31. Construction and assembly output in Poland, by voivodship (PLN m and € m), 2007-2010
32. Construction and assembly output in Poland, investment works, by voivodship (PLN m and € m), 2007-2009
33. Construction and assembly output in Poland, renovation works, by voivodship (PLN m and € m), 2007-2009
34. Number of residential buildings for which construction permits were issued in Poland, by voivodship, 2006-2010
35. Number of non-residential buildings for which construction permits were issued in Poland, by voivodship, 2006-2010
36. Characteristics of voivodships
37. Key financial data of the Polimex-Mostostal group, 2005-2010
38. Key financial data of the Budimex group, 2005-2010
39. Key financial data of Strabag, 2005-2010
40. Key financial data of the Skanska group, 2005-2010
41. Key financial data of the Mostostal Warszawa group, 2005-2010
42. Key financial data of the PBG group, 2005-2010
43. Key financial data of the Warbud group, 2005-2010
44. Key financial data of the P.R.I. Pol-Aqua group, 2005-2010
45. Key financial data of the Mostostal Zabrze group, 2005-2010
46. Key financial data of the Erbud group, 2005-2010

Bouygues Immobilier Polska
Budimex
Buma
Dom Development
Echo Investment
Erbud
Gant Development
Ghelamco
Goodman
GTC
J.W. Construction
LC Corp
Mayland Real Estate
Mostostal Warszawa
Mostostal Zabrze
Neinver
Orco Property Group
PBG
Plaza Centers
Pol-Aqua
Polimex-Mostostal
Polnord
Polnord
Polskie Składy Budowlane
ProLogis
Raiffeisen Evolution
Segro
Skanska
Strabag
TriGránit
Warbud
WingsProperties

and more...