Telecommunications market in Poland 2008

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Development forecasts for 2008-2012

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Date: 2008-09-14
Language: English or Polish
No. pages: 197
Delivery: PDF file

Description:

Telecommunications market in Poland 2008 analyses the current situation and discusses the trends and development directions on the Polish telecommunications market in the years ahead. Each chapter contains the most up-to-date information on individual segments of the market and presents profiles of the largest players in the industry. The report forecasts the development of the key market indicators and looks at the growth opportunities at each segment in the years to come.

Sources of data presented in the report

The report is based on analysis of data from the following sources:
- PMR own data, analyses and forecasts
- sources in the public domain: professional press and specialist internet services, general press, reports on the telecoms markets in Poland and Europe,
- financial reports of operators, documents published by brokerage houses, investment funds and public institutions, as well as available on the internet
- interviews with experts on the telecommunications market
- survey conducted among telecommunications companies specially for the purposes of the report.

Strengths of the report:

- detailed analysis of the fixed-line and mobile telephony markets
- description of the current situation on the ISP market in Poland
- accurate and reliable forecasts and growth prospects for 2008-2012
- findings of the survey conducted among the largest telecommunications companies in Poland.

Current trends

The analysis of the telecommunications market, contained in the report, describes:
- the overall market situation and possible effects of emergence of new mobile operators
- the consequences of implementation of the Telecommunications Law
- broadband internet access (including access based on DSL, CaTV and other technologies)
- 3G telephony.

Reliable forecasts

Most of the forecasts concerning the value of the telecommunications market in Poland or its individual segments were prepared using a model based on historical information, macroeconomic data (both historic and forecast) and information on trends that emerge in the telecommunications sector and its individual segments.

The report presents forecasts for 2008-2012. They concern:
- size of the market as a whole
- size of individual segments (fixed-line telephony, mobile telephony, internet access, data transmission)
- penetration rates of fixed-line and mobile telephony
- penetration rate of internet access and number of broadband users (by type of access).

Findings of the survey conducted among the largest telecommunications firms in Poland

The survey was carried out by PMR Research, the research division of PMR, amongst the management staff of the largest telecommunications companies operating in Poland.
The findings of the survey present:
- current situation on the market, including the barriers and development opportunities
- assessment of steps taken by the Office of Electronic Communications
- telecommunication technologies and services that are most likely to succeed on the Polish market
- 3G telephony market
- long-term forecast for penetration rates of the mobile telephony market (3G included) and fixed-line telephony market

With the responses given, we were able to better understand the current situation on the telecommunications market. They proved very helpful sources of information on the industry.

The report target audience:

- management staff and marketing departments of companies either already active or considering launching of operations on the telecommunications market in Poland
- consulting, research and analytical firms
- government institutions, embassies and sector organisations
- financial institutions, including banks, brokerage houses and investment funds.

List of graphs and Tables:

List of graphs

Value (PLN bn) and growth rate (%) of the telecommunications market in Poland, 1998-2007
WIG20 and WIG-Telekom index values, 31 Aug 2007-01 Sep 2008
Value (PLN bn) and growth rate (%) of the telecommunications services market in Poland, 1998-2007
Telecommunications market in Poland – shares (%) of individual segments in the total market value (PLN bn), 2007
Monthly cost of using a fixed-line telephone (€) for individual users in Poland, selected European countries and the European Union, 2000-2007
Monthly cost of using a fixed-line telephone (€) for corporate users in Poland, selected European countries and the European Union, 2000-2007
Aggregate monthly revenue (PLN) per fixed-line, mobile and broadband internet access user in Poland, 2001-2008
Number (m) of permanent internet connections and broadband internet connections in Poland, 2004-H1 2008
Percentage of households using more than one telecommunications service (%) from a single provider in Poland, selected European countries and the European Union, 2006-2007
Household penetration rates for PCs, laptops and internet access in Poland, 1998-2008
Mobile penetration (%) in selected European countries and the EU-15 average, 1994-2007
Percentage of households (%) using mobile services (pre-paid and post-paid) in selected European countries and the European Union, 2007
Value (PLN bn) and growth rate (%) of the telecommunications market in Poland, 2007-2012
Value (PLN bn) and growth rate (%) of the telecommunications services market in Poland , 2007-2012
Value of individual segments of the telecommunications market in Poland (PLN bn), 1998-2012
Telecommunications market in Poland – shares of selected segments (%) in market value, 1998-2012
Telecommunications market in Poland - growth rate of the value of individual segments (%), 1999-2012
TP SA Group
Polkomtel/Exatel Group
Polska Telefonia Cyfrowa Group
Netia Group
How was 2007 for your company?
How will 2008 turn out for your company in comparison with 2007?
PMR telecommunications climate indicator, 2002-2008
Did the value of the Polish telecommunications market decrease or increase in 2007 relative to 2006?
Will the value of the Polish telecommunications market increase or decrease in 2008?
Will the value of the Polish telecommunications market increase or decrease in 2009 in comparison with 2008?
Over the next two years, the value of the fixed-line market in Poland will...
Over the next two years, the value of the mobile market in Poland will...
Over the next two years, the value of the Polish ISP market will...
The greatest barriers to the development of the Polish telecommunications market
Largest barriers to the development of the Polish telecommunications market; opinions of respondents in 2002-2008
Factors which can positively affect the development of the Polish telecommunications market over the next two years
Key factors with the most positive impact on the development of the Polish telecommunications market; opinions of respondents in 2002-2008
How do you assess UKE’s activity?
Which UKE’s actions are currently most desirable?
Growth prospects for selected segments of the Polish telecommunications market in the next two years, % of respondents
How will individual segments develop in relation to the entire telecommunications market over the next two years?
Which internet access technology, 3G or WiMAX, will come to dominate the market over the next three years?
Can we expect significant capital expenditure on the development of the WiMAX technology in Poland?
When will it happen?
Which mobile value-added services will develop the fastest over the next two years?
Will there be any new MVNOs on the mobile market in the years to come?
How many MVNOs will be operating on the Polish market in 2008-2010?
MVNOs will succeed in the short run (1-2 years)
MVNOs will be successful in the long run (3-4 years)
Over the next two-three years, MVNOs will be acquired by the incumbent operators owning an infrastructure
MVNOs’ offering will be supplemental to their core business
Factors enabling MVNOs to succeed on the market
Reasons for a relatively big number of MVNOs in Poland compared to other countries in Central and Eastern Europe
What mobile TV content has the greatest chance of becoming popular in Poland?
Development of 3G mobile telephony will prompt a fall in mobile prices
Internet access services will develop thanks to 3G technology
3G mobile telephony will be used by companies rather than individuals
3G mobile telephony will rather be a niche product
Will there be any mergers or acquisitions on the Polish telecommunications market in the coming year?
Value (PLN bn) and growth rate (%) of the mobile market in Poland, 2002-2007
Mobile market in Poland – operators’ shares (%) by volume of their revenue (PLN bn), 2007
Mobile market in Poland – operators’ shares (%) by volume of their revenue (PLN bn), H1 2008
Quarterly values of the mobile market in Poland (PLN bn), Q1 2002-Q4 2008
Mobile penetration (%) in Poland, 1996-H1 2008
Number (m) and growth rate (%) of mobile users in Poland, 1998-H1 2008
Mobile market in Poland – shares of networks (%) by number of SIM cards (m), H1 2008
Number of net additions on the mobile telephony market in Poland (‘000), 1997-2007
Mobile market in Poland – shares of networks (%) by net additions (‘000), H1 2008
Total connection time in mobile telephony in Poland (m minutes), 2005-2007
Total of text messages sent in Poland (m), 2005-2007
Total of multimedia messages sent in Poland (m), 2005-2007
Mobile operators’ revenue in Poland, by particular categories (PLN bn), 2005-2007
Shares of pre- and post-paid customers (%) in the Polish mobile market, 2002-H1 2008
Post-paid mobile market in Poland – operators’ shares by number of subscribers (m), H1 2008
Pre-paid mobile market in Poland – networks’ shares by number of SIM cards (m), H1 2008
Average blended ARPU of Polish mobile operators (PLN), 2001-H1 2008
Average revenue per minute of connection in mobile networks in Poland (PLN), 2001-H1 2008
Share of non-voice revenues in total revenues of mobile operators in Poland (%), 2001-H1 2008
Number (m) and growth rate (%) of mobile users in Poland, 2007-2012
Mobile users in Poland – shares of pre- and post-paid segments (%), 2007-2012
Mobile penetration (%) in Poland, 2007-2012
Value (PLN bn) and growth rate (%) of the mobile market in Poland, 2007-2012
Reduction of MTRs in mobile networks in Poland (PLN), 2006-2010
Revenue of mobile operators in Poland from MTRs (PLN bn), 2006-2010
MVNO market in Poland by number of SIM cards (‘000) distributed by particular MVNOs, H1 2008
Volume of sales of new mobile handsets in Poland (m) and growth rate (%), 2003-2008
Mobile handset market in Poland – shares of the largest manufacturers (%) by sales volume (m), 2007
Largest dealers on the mobile market in Poland by number of outlets, July 2008
Number of mobile internet users in Poland (‘000), H1 2007-2008
Value (PLN bn) and growth rate (%) of fixed-line telephony market in Poland, 2001-2007
Fixed-line market in Poland – shares of the biggest players (%) by volume of revenues (PLN m), 2007
Number of fixed-line subscribers (m) and penetration rate (%) in Poland, 1996-H1 2008
Fixed-line market in Poland – shares of biggest players (%) by number of lines, H1 2008
Number of business lines in Poland (m) and share in total number of fixed lines (%), 2003-H1 2008
Business fixed-line market in Poland – shares of the biggest players (%) by number of lines (m), H1 2008
Share of VoIP connections in total voice connection time in fixed networks in Poland (%), 2001-2007
Percentage of internet users in Poland who have particular messengers installed on their computers, June 2008
VoIP fixed telephone services subscribers in biggest CaTV operators in Poland, H1 2008
Structure of the Polish fixed-line market by source of revenue, 2004-2007
Value (PLN bn) and growth rate of the fixed-line voice connection market in Poland, 2001-2007
Value (PLN bn) of the fixed-line voice connection market in Poland by market segments, 2001-2007
Value (PLN bn) and growth rate (%) of the local connections market in Poland, 2001-2007
Value (PLN bn) of the local connections market in Poland with a breakdown into traditional and VoIP markets, 2001-2007
Volume (bn minutes) and growth rate (%) of the LC market in Poland by traffic volume, 2001-2007
Volume (bn minutes) of the LC market with a breakdown into traditional and VoIP markets, 2001-2007
LC market in Poland – shares (%) of the biggest players by traffic volume (m minutes), 2007
TP SA’s share (%) in the LC market within operator’s own network by traffic volume, Q1 2004-Q2 2008
Value (PLN bn) and growth rate (%) of the domestic long distance connections market in Poland, 2001-2007
Value (PLN bn) of the DLD connections market in Poland with a breakdown into traditional and VoIP markets, 2001-2007
Volume (bn minutes) and growth rate (%) of the DLD connections market in Poland by traffic volume, 2001-2007
Volume (bn minutes) of the DLD connections market in Poland with a breakdown into the traditional and VoIP markets, 2001-2007
DLD connections market in Poland – shares (%) of the biggest players by traffic volume (m minutes), 2007
TP SA’s share (%) in the DLD connections market within operator’s own network by traffic volume, Q1 2004-Q2 2008
Value (PLN bn) and growth rate (%) of the international long distance connections market in Poland, 2001-2007
Value (PLN bn) of the ILD connections market in Poland with a breakdown into traditional and VoIP markets, 2001-2007
Volume (m minutes) and growth rate (%) of the ILD connections market in Poland by traffic volume, 2001-2007
Volume (m minutes) of the ILD connections market in Poland with a breakdown into the traditional and VoIP markets, 2001-2007
ILD connections market in Poland – shares (%) of the biggest players by traffic volume (m minutes), 2007
TP SA’s share (%) in the ILD connections market within operator’s own network by traffic volume, Q1 2004-Q2 2008
Value (PLN bn) and growth rate (%) of the fixed-to-mobile connections market in Poland, 2001-2007
Value (PLN bn) of the F2M connections market in Poland with a breakdown into traditional and VoIP markets, 2001-2007
Volume (bn minutes) and growth rate (%) of the F2M connections market in Poland by traffic volume, 2001-2007
Volume (bn minutes) of the F2M connections market in Poland with a breakdown into the traditional and VoIP markets, 2001-2007
F2M connections market in Poland – shares (%) of the biggest players by traffic volume (m minutes), 2007
TP SA’s share (%) in the F2M connections market within operator’s own network by traffic volume, Q1 2004-Q2 2008
Shares (%) of individual segments as a percentage of TP SA’s consolidated revenue, H1 2005-H1 2008
Shares (%) of TP SA’s subscription fee revenue in operator’s total revenue, 2001-2007
Number of fixed-line subscribers (m) and penetration rate (%) in Poland, 2007-2012
Number of fixed-line subscribers in Poland (m) with a breakdown into consumer and business lines, 2007-2012
Value (PLN bn) and growth rate (%) of the fixe-line telephony market in Poland, 2007-2012
Value (PLN bn) and growth rate (%) of the DLISP market in Poland, 2001-2007
The DLISP market in Poland – shares (PLN m) of component segments in the market value, 2007
Value (PLN m) and growth rate (%) of the data transmission market in Poland, 2001-2007
Data transmission market in Poland – shares (%) of key players by revenue volume (PLN m), 2007
Value (PLN m) and growth rate (%) of the line rental market in Poland, 2001-2007
Line rental market in Poland – shares of the biggest players (%) by revenue volume (wholesale and retail markets), 2007
Value (PLN m) and growth rate (%) of the internet access market in Poland, 2001-2007
Number of internet users (m) and penetration (%) in Poland, 1997-H1 2008
Percentage of internet users in Poland using the internet on an everyday or nearly everyday basis, Q2 2003-Q2 2008
Percentage of internet users in Poland using the internet at home, Q2 2003-Q2 2008
Percentage (%) of internet users in Poland declaring having internet access at home, with a breakdown into broadband and dial-up access, H1 2005-H1 2008
Types of internet connections used in households in Poland (% of households), H1 2006-H1 2008
Internet penetration in companies in selected countries of the Central and Eastern European region, 2003-2007
Value (PLN m) and growth rate (%) of the dial-up market in Poland, 2001-2007
Dial-up market in Poland – shares (%) of key operators by revenue volume (PLN m), 2007
Dial-up traffic in Poland (bn minutes), 2001-2008
Value (PLN m) and growth rate (%) of the broadband internet access in Poland, 2001-2007
Percentage of broadband connetions in Poland by transfer capacity to end-user, H1 2008
Broadband internet subscribers (‘000) – TP SA and CaTV operators in Poland, 2001-H1 2008
BSA-based services subscribers in Poland (‘000) – shares of key players, H1 2008
Broadband internet access subscribers (‘000) in Poland – shares (%) of key players/access types, H1 2008
Broadband internet penetration (%) in Poland, 2002-H1 2008
TP SA’s revenue on DLISP market (PLN m) with a breakdown on particular segments, 2002-2007
Internet access subscribers (’000) of TP SA, by access technology, Q1 2007-Q2 2008
Number of broadband internet access subscribers in Netia, Q1 2007-Q2 2008
Number of broadband access internet subscribers in Telefonia Dialog and growth rate (%), 2004-H1 2008
Key CaTV operators in Poland by revenue (PLN m) generated from internet access services, 2007
Key CaTV operators in Poland by number/percentage of internet access subscribers (’000), H1 2008
Number of internet users (m) and penetration rate (%) in Poland, 2007-2012
Number of broadband internet subscribers (‘000) in Poland, with a breakdown into the business and household segments, 2007-2012
Number of subscribers (m) in Poland by broadband access technologies, 2007-2012
Braodband connections in Poland by share (%) of particular technologies, 2007-2012
Value (PLN m) of the DLISP market in Poland by segments, 2001-2012
Broadband connections (‘000) in TP SA with a breakdown into the TP SA retail lines and BSA/LLU, 2007-2012
Value (PLN bn) and growth rate (%) of the DLISP market in Poland, 2007-2

List of tables

Telecommunications market in Poland – key data and forecasts, 2007-2012
Key developments on the market to September 2008 21-
Polish telecommunications market in comparison with other selected markets in Central and Eastern Europe and the EU-15, 2007
Percentage of households with access to telephony services (fixed-line and mobile) in selected European countries and in the European Union, 2007
Key data on the mobile telephony market in Poland
Blended ARPU (PLN) of mobile operators in Poland and growth rate of this indicator (%), 2005-H1 2008
PTK Centertel: key data, 2001-H1 2008
Polkomtel: key data, 2001–H1 2008
PTC: key data, 2001–H1 2008
P4: key data , 2007–H1 2008
Mobile virtual operators present on the mobile market in Poland or planning to enter it, H1 2008
Intended and estimated number of users of selected MVNOs in Poland, H1 2008
3G coverage in Poland, by population coverage (%) in case of particular operators’ networks, 2008
Number of radio permits for UMTS stations for particular mobile operators in Poland, 2008
Key data on fixed-line market in Poland
Number of new VoIP services users attracted by selected providers in Poland in 2007 and their targets for 2008
TP SA: key data, 2000-H1 2008
Netia: key data, 2000-H1 2008
Telefonia Dialog: key data, 2000-H1 2008
Multimedia Polska: key data, 2002-H1 2008
Sferia: key data, 2005-H1 2008
Key data on the data transmission, line rental and ISP market (DLISP) in Poland
Local ISPs acquired by Netia, 2006-2008
Key acquisitions on the CaTV operators’ market in Poland, 2007
Growth rate for particular DLISP market segments (%), 2007-2012
Standard broadband internet access offered to Polish individual subscribers by price (PLN) and connection speed, 2007-2012